One Coronavirus risk I haven’t seen people talk much about is sequencing risk. The assets may be good and cash generative over the long term but it doesn’t matter if the creditors are the new owners and your equity gets wiped out.
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Love the monopoly analogy
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If the assets are money good banks have in three past extended and pretended. If there was ever a good reason to e&p it's now. No one wants a defaulted asset when a case can be made it's closer to not.
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I probably need to reread The Shipping Man, or maybe just become The Shipping Tran.
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It’s funny, right before I saw this tweet, I looked at the stock chart for
$ASH. Went from >$30 to ~$3 over leverage and oil fears in 2008/09. In 2 years it had totally recovered. 2 years after that, it was at $45. In 2018, it was at 85. -
If you bought at $10 & held on til now: 18.5% CAGR. If you timed perfectly & bought at $3 and sold at $85, you’d have 45%... point being, if you can thread the needle and get the co that doesn’t go bankrupt; your entrance and exit can be less than perfect & you’ll do amazing
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Wouldn't want to have exposure to travel assets here. Although airlines are sooo tempting esp
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Yeah agreed for sure. I have been looking at a lot of those airline names and it's easy to get tempted by 50% off but they're really tricky! Definitely keeping an eye on them tho!
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wait. isn't making sure the company can be alive for at least the next 3 years standard procedure for any analyst? am i just retarded or is that NOT an industrial standard?
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IDK if it is or isn’t but I know many investors, myself included, are not professionals?
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