Love to play with terrible ideas as thought experiments b/c people always write novels back to me about why I'm wrong. This is a superpower because it shows me the consensus view immediately and with minimal effort. Copywriting is magic.
But I actually don't though. Genuinely think analyzing it from a passive shareholder's perspective is +EV. Make a small killing on Helios & Matheson when I knew it was garbage.
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‘Fraud for’ vs. ‘fraud against’? On Helios I fail to see how it was a fraud. Like WeWork it was plain to see the model was unworkable... they didn’t lie to anybody.
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IDK I know people who never got their cards after paying, especially towards the end. My friend did even better, he had a 10-bagger on it. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/thousands-of-moviepass-customers-have-been-charged-for-cards-they-never-received-2017-12-21 … But if you don't like that example just consider the case of Kreuger & Toll as documented later in the thread.
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When you play with terrible ideas, sometimes you find out they're not so terrible. The most accepted truths are usually the ones most worth testing because everyone accepts that the truths are true. Getting the consensus view freely & figuring out where it's wrong is a huge edge
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There was a long time you could have held Valeant and especially if you were rebalancing you should have done great.
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