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LAForeverHall's profile
Liz
Liz
Liz
@LAForeverHall

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Liz

@LAForeverHall

ArIeS. InFp. ChAoTiC NeUtRaL. RaVenClAw. Investor, marketer, performance artist. My investing articles: https://lizardbrain.substack.com/ 

Joined March 2012

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    1. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      21. Distressed situations are fascinating because they’re just as much about game theory as they are about legal protections and rights. The Vulture Investors by Hilary Rosenberg is a fun book on the subject, for those of us (mostly) locked out of this game.

      4 replies 16 retweets 193 likes
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    2. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      22. Markel’s culture is overrated. The company’s predecessor was literally formed to take advantage of regulatory capture its founder created. Here’s $MKL co-CEO Richie Whitt talking about the scheme. “It was pretty brilliant.” I’ll say. https://www.carriermanagement.com/news/2016/09/19/158932.htm …pic.twitter.com/dtj2JxoEXs

      2 replies 16 retweets 115 likes
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    3. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      23. Alternatively, $MKL culture is underrated because the company has a history of being kinda clever and sneaky. Choose your own adventure. I own $MO. I’m not beyond making money from regulatory capture. 😂

      1 reply 4 retweets 80 likes
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    4. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      24. Economic moats are cool but aren’t the only thing. Commoditized businesses can be great investments despite low AVERAGE returns if the range of possible outcomes is wide enough.

      1 reply 8 retweets 117 likes
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    5. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      25. For example, industries with relatively low short term price elasticity of supply occasionally experience jackpot economics when the service they’re supplying is mission critical. See: shipping.

      4 replies 11 retweets 159 likes
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    6. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      26. In highly reflexive businesses, short sellers are kind of like economic terrorists by reducing the range of possible intrinsic value outcomes.

      4 replies 3 retweets 54 likes
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    7. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      27. The pink sheets are one of the last Wild West markets in, well, the West. The SEC’s new proposed rule may make trading many of the stocks there much more difficult in the next few months. Looking forward to major dislocations, if so. Do the homework now to be ready.

      3 replies 7 retweets 78 likes
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    8. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      28. Businesses that don’t have economic moats yet but are developing them can be better investments than businesses that already do.

      2 replies 28 retweets 246 likes
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    9. Flo Crivello‏ @Altimor 23 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @LAForeverHall

      Because they were forced to develop operational excellence?

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Mark Brooks‏ @markbrooks 23 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @Altimor @LAForeverHall

      I'm no Liz, but one theory is that if they're growing the moat, they're actually paying attention. Moats that are undefended are more easily breached.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 23 Dec 2019
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      Replying to @markbrooks @Altimor

      💯 this and also because of who might capture the value. If you buy a biz that goes from no moat to impenetrable moat the multiple, all else equal, is likely to go much higher. If you buy a biz that has a moat that then degrades, its multiple may contract over time.

      6:14 AM - 23 Dec 2019
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      • Flo Crivello Mark Brooks Corwin Shropshire
      1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        1. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 23 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @LAForeverHall @markbrooks @Altimor

          In the first scenario you’re capturing that value. In the latter scenario the guy who sold it to you extracted the value.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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