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LAForeverHall's profile
Liz
Liz
Liz
@LAForeverHall

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Liz

@LAForeverHall

ArIeS. InFp. ChAoTiC NeUtRaL. RaVenClAw. Investor, marketer, performance artist. My investing articles: https://lizardbrain.substack.com/ 

Joined March 2012

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    1. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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      80. Investments exist outside of financial markets, and there’s no reason you can’t apply your financial knowledge to investing outside the usual domains. Direct response marketing, with its focus on immediate sales, is tailor made for it. Used to be my job, actually.

      2 replies 2 retweets 41 likes
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    2. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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      81. The tech bubble at the turn of the century wasn’t wrong, just early. Same with the railroads. Just took until the industry consolidated to work. There’s often a big kernel of truth in mass delusions that makes them believable. Survivors of wash outs are worth looking at.

      2 replies 8 retweets 122 likes
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    3. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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      82. Walker’s Manual of Unlisted Stocks is a treasure map of OTC stocks, but more of the treasure gets dug up with each year that passes. It still has value as a starting point but one day its primary value will be as an antique. Would recommend getting one if you can find one.

      2 replies 1 retweet 51 likes
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    4. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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      83. A lot of people claim the dollar isn’t backed by anything since the end of the gold standard. That’s wrong. The dollar is backed by 3,800 nukes and the only demonstrated willingness to use them in warfare throughout history.

      2 replies 14 retweets 123 likes
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    5. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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      84. Okay, that last one’s a joke. Kind of. But Madman Theory shifts the Overton Window of what’s possible not only in politics, but markets and business as well. It can be a competitive advantage to make people think you’re a nutcase.

      2 replies 1 retweet 51 likes
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    6. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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      85. $CHWY is the perfect stock to play the immortality theme. Dog trials are happening before humans, and the longer Rover lives, the higher the LTV of a customer. It’s gonna be a big shock to the market when dogs start collecting Social Security.https://www.cbsnews.com/news/harvard-geneticist-george-church-goal-to-protect-humans-from-viruses-genetic-diseases-and-aging-60-minutes-2019-12-08/ …

      3 replies 0 retweets 56 likes
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    7. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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      86. Some of the most interesting stocks in the market are high priced shares, especially on the pink sheets. They’re often family held or tightly controlled companies that have done well over time, and the stock has never split. Can find some unique and interesting assets there

      2 replies 0 retweets 48 likes
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    8. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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      87. Not caring what others think can be a strong competitive advantage. One of the most profitable businesses I’ve ever seen writes spam letters that open Boomer wallets like they’re running out of baked beans. Owner is a billionaire and few people know or want to emulate it.

      5 replies 1 retweet 81 likes
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    9. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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      Starting to run on fumes here... each one gets harder to pull out of the hat. Gotta get to 💯 in the next twelve hours...

      1 reply 0 retweets 18 likes
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    10. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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      88. When investors start being cryptic about their analysis and only hint at their meaning, it’s time to be skeptical. If I had a dime for every time I heard about the “non-guarantor subsidiaries” that were going to salvage $SHLD equity value, I could buy 100% of $SHLDQ.

      1 reply 0 retweets 33 likes
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      Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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      89. Master Limited Partnerships have “Master” in the name because that’s what you’re going to have to address them as when you get on your knees and beg for your money back.

      4:23 AM - 20 Dec 2019
      • 4 Retweets
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      • Alex Pitti Delta Party Strap Cap Ben doobert AReviewOrTwo Nate Tobik Gregory Vousvounis Reddy
      1 reply 4 retweets 62 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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          90. In investing, “DCF” has dual meanings. One is distributable cash flow. The other is discounted cash flow. Both are made up.

          2 replies 3 retweets 40 likes
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        3. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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          91. It’s said a company can’t grow at a rate > the economy forever or it will become the economy. Amazon has been since the ‘90s. There’s a chance big tech is going to upend things and create a cyberpunk dystopia. A lady from the DOD told me $GOOG is a national security threat.

          1 reply 3 retweets 78 likes
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        4. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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          92. I’d rather own one mediocre business than a mediocre conglomerate. $L is in a never ending game of whac-a-mole. As soon as it solves problems at one sub, problems at another sub pop up to take its place. At least I can get leverage to cyclical upside with the single biz.

          1 reply 2 retweets 32 likes
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        5. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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          93. Retailers and platform mom-n-pops are different businesses. With purchasing power, a retailer can get better terms from suppliers than a mom-n-pop $AMZN shop can. But the $AMZN shop may have COGS that round to zero if they’re getting inventory from dumpster fetch quests.

          1 reply 2 retweets 22 likes
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        6. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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          94. You should be totally open to embarrassing yourself as an investor, and if you can, come to enjoy the process. If you can laugh off being wrong, you can try out more investing styles as a form of R&D to keep improving. You never innovate without a little egg on your face.

          1 reply 16 retweets 131 likes
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        7. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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          95. Sometimes new ideas work, sometimes they don’t, but you can’t be afraid of the ones that don’t work if you want to keep growing. Otherwise, you plateau and the world slowly passes you by. When you successfully adapt your skillset, all the failures become worthwhile.

          1 reply 9 retweets 60 likes
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        8. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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          96. This is another benefit of diversification. You have less leverage to your top ideas, BUT you get to iterate your style more quickly by having more at-bats, which results in a faster feedback loop. You also feel better being experimental, because you’re making little bets.

          2 replies 6 retweets 69 likes
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        9. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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          97. Most of the people who complain about indexing seem to be active fund managers who can’t sleep at night because they’re worried about the existential threat cheap alternatives pose them. The financial industry needs a good shakeout. This has been a long time coming.

          1 reply 3 retweets 68 likes
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        10. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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          98. They’re losing business to... no one. No one is doing a better job than most asset managers. As in having no one as a manager is better than having most managers as managers. I’m glad the economic meat grinder is moving up the economic ladder to higher value targets.

          1 reply 3 retweets 55 likes
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        11. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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          99. Just as asset managers and workers have been replaced by robots, CEOs soon will be as well. Twilight Zone predicted it back in 1964, and it’s cool to see how close it has become to reality. AlphaGo beat the top minds of Go. Can it beat Buffett? $BRK https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Brain_Center_at_Whipple%27s …

          2 replies 0 retweets 36 likes
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        12. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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          100. Don’t be afraid to invent your own investing concepts. The field’s philosophy reminds me of heatlamped hamburgers left out to rot for decades. Investing is artistic so be artistic and try new things. It’s fun. Like I tried this hundred tweet thread andnowImdonethanks @vgr!

          6 replies 7 retweets 121 likes
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        13. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 20 Dec 2019
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          Liz Retweeted Liz

          This was a lot of fun and I got to meet a lot of new friends, who are now 1/3 of my followers! Excited to have finished my AphorismsTwitter debut successfully. Thanks for putting up with the last 30 tweets! Link to the start of thread, since I broke it. https://twitter.com/laforeverhall/status/1205979160625049600?s=21 …https://twitter.com/LAForeverHall/status/1205979160625049600 …

          Liz added,

          Liz @LAForeverHall
          Just broke Venkat so I’ll do my own assignment. 1 like = 1 opinion on... investing, I guess. Maybe a few per like if no one wants to play. https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1205977370483556352 …
          Show this thread
          14 replies 0 retweets 34 likes
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        14. End of conversation

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