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LAForeverHall's profile
Liz
Liz
Liz
@LAForeverHall

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Liz

@LAForeverHall

ArIeS. InFp. ChAoTiC NeUtRaL. RaVenClAw. Investor, marketer, performance artist. My investing articles: https://lizardbrain.substack.com/ 

Joined March 2012

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    1. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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      61. For example, when talking to Congress about its NY biz, the CEO of Argonaut admitted that of $69 million of malpractice reserves, Argonaut had only paid out about $24k on its policies. An analysis by an outside firm estimated Argonaut was actually about 2.6x overreserved.pic.twitter.com/wNZBk6O451

      1 reply 1 retweet 34 likes
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    2. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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      62. Funny thing about increasing your loss reserves as an insurer. Doing so lowers reported earnings, and can make a business look less profitable than it actually is. Maybe it’s a coincidence that so many of Teledyne’s massive tender offers happened around this time.pic.twitter.com/gN0jrVBHhT

      1 reply 0 retweets 49 likes
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    3. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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      63. Or maybe it wasn’t a coincidence, and Singleton knew what he was doing. At the same time Teledyne was reporting losses from its insurance businesses, its other businesses continued to grow. But it was able to buy in shares at a discount to what it paid a few years earlier.

      1 reply 0 retweets 37 likes
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    4. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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      64. After insurance results turned in ‘75, the stock soared and became a multibagger from the tender offer prices. With the Argonaut losses, Teledyne had time to do big tenders at low prices. That’s why sequencing and narrative management are important to capital allocation.

      2 replies 4 retweets 49 likes
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    5. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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      65. A good CEO will try to position the company to perform optimally in the next part of the sequence OR alter the sequence to optimize current reality. $TSLA would be dead now if Musk failed at this, which is why it’s wrong to chastise him for issuing shares at $243.

      1 reply 1 retweet 50 likes
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    6. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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      66. Because if he didn’t issue shares at $243, the stock would not be at $404 now. It would be at $0, or close to. The future is not independent of the past. It is dependent on it. By altering narrative, we alter the current “reality,” which in turn alters the future.

      1 reply 9 retweets 86 likes
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    7. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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      67. Singleton altering perceptions of Teledyne’s profitability to buy back shares on the cheap and Musk performing elaborate 🐚 games to issue equity at high prices are two sides of the same coin. Both are legendary to me for seeing narrative & sequence as capital to allocate.

      3 replies 2 retweets 56 likes
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    8. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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      68. $L is ALLEGED to have used a similar trick on Boardwalk Pipeline, by deliberately tanking the units to exercise its call on them at lower prices. Capital is not just cash and assets. It is perception, ideas, and time. Alter those and the rational uses of cash also change.

      1 reply 2 retweets 64 likes
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    9. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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      69. Of course, I cannot prove any of this was done intentionally. I’m not suggesting it’s a matter of fact. But from the info I have been able to piece together, and noting Singleton’s genius in using reflexivity to build Teledyne, it’s an idea that makes sense to me.

      3 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
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    10. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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      Sources for those who care: https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/leon-cooperman-value-investing-congress-henry-singleton.pdf … https://www.nytimes.com/1975/06/17/archives/argonauts-malpractice-premiums-in-74-amounted-to-35million-claims.html … https://www.nytimes.com/1975/06/08/archives/for-argonaut-profits-proved-illusory.html … https://www.milbank.org/wp-content/uploads/mq/volume-55/issue-02/55-2-The-Malpractice-Controversy-and-the-Quality-of-Patient-Care.pdf … https://news.bloomberglaw.com/mergers-and-antitrust/loews-must-face-suit-alleging-pipeline-stock-option-gamesmanship …

      2 replies 3 retweets 41 likes
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      Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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      70. Ken Fisher shouldn’t be shamed for discussing the use of LSD. Investing is a creative field more than a scientific one, and certain drugs do boost creativity by helping you make unique connections. I wish more investors would talk about how drugs influence their investing.

      7:44 PM - 19 Dec 2019
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      • BeatificCapitalist Quarantined Fink Kevin Lynch qualityperspective$ Guy Ezell Prakash Narayanan mountainmistcapital George Huseman John W Babiak 🇨🇦 / 🇦🇼
      6 replies 3 retweets 83 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          71. If you pay up to invest in moats you should be careful not to drown in them. If a company’s moat begins to degrade, you can get a deadly combination of decreased earnings power and multiple compression. All of a sudden the sure thing becomes a sure loser.

          4 replies 11 retweets 82 likes
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        3. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          Liz Retweeted Liz

          Screwed up my chaining. Thread continues here. https://twitter.com/laforeverhall/status/1207885870843318272?s=21 …https://twitter.com/LAForeverHall/status/1207885870843318272 …

          Liz added,

          Liz @LAForeverHall
          72. Portfolio diversification is like type diversification in Pokémon. If you just powerlevel Charmander, you risk getting BTFO by Misty’s Starmie in Cerulean City. Going all in will kill you eventually.
          Show this thread
          2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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        4. End of conversation
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        2. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall Apr 27
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          Replying to @AestheteCaveman

          I’m not sure but I would believe it.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. Reddy‏ @Geerdevi 19 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @LAForeverHall

          😳😱

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Zaphod‏ @MinvstrD Apr 27
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          Replying to @LAForeverHall

          I feel like coke and wall street are pretty much synonymous now. Those 10-k's wont read themselves after all, to be followed up by 67 page thesis.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Liberty‏ @LibertyRPF 21 Dec 2019
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          Replying to @LAForeverHall

          https://maps.org 

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        1. Jon‏ @tabooJD Apr 27
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          Replying to @LAForeverHall

          Well why didn’t you just ask me. Ken should not be frowned upon for his use of LSD. What should be is his systematic approach of ruining careers and retirements for his own benefit. Anyone who thinks this a dude is a “fiDUCiary” and isn’t slinging VAs like crack rocks is dumb

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