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LAForeverHall's profile
Liz
Liz
Liz
@LAForeverHall

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Liz

@LAForeverHall

ArIeS. InFp. ChAoTiC NeUtRaL. RaVenClAw. Investor, marketer, performance artist. My investing articles: https://lizardbrain.substack.com/ 

Joined March 2012

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    1. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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      42. Jeff Bezos is a better capital allocator than Warren Buffett. $AMZN $BRK

      3 replies 10 retweets 91 likes
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    2. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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      43. Stock ownership doesn’t necessarily represent partial business ownership in any realistic sense. He who has the gold makes the rules.

      3 replies 5 retweets 58 likes
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    3. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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      44. Not every company is even trying to become more competitive over time. Many exist only to provide sinecures to their agent operators. There’s money to be made in companies that bother to care.

      3 replies 18 retweets 104 likes
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    4. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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      45. Massive presentations about a new position are massive not because that much information is relevant, but because it looks more convincing and shows people you “did your homework” Using research as marketing. Very smart.

      1 reply 14 retweets 116 likes
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    5. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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      46. The best players in bad industries are worth investigating. If economics are so poor most companies can’t make money, you MAY not have to deal with new players boosting industry capacity. Top dog’s scale can let it wring out profits surrounded by a moat of broken glass.

      2 replies 11 retweets 132 likes
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    6. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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      47. Real estate has some unique advantages in terms of leverage and taxes, but also has unique problems. If you don’t manage it yourself, you’re subject to an agency problem with expense pass throughs. If you do manage it yourself, you’ve bought a part time job.

      2 replies 12 retweets 124 likes
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    7. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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      48. The Greater Fool Theory is something to be cherished, not maligned. Playing it opens up a whole new world of opportunities where psychology is a competitive advantage. But if you never try, you’ll never get better.

      2 replies 6 retweets 82 likes
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    8. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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      49. $GOOG and $FB have faced a lot of criticism about their ads not working. Not a new problem. Most ads either don’t work or are hard to measure and advertising agencies have been feasting on that opacity for decades. Only when their lunch was eaten did they start crying foul.

      2 replies 10 retweets 99 likes
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    9. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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      50. There is a misunderstanding that advertising returns could not be measured before big tech came along and provided a treasure trove of data. This is false. Keyed ads have been a thing in direct response advertising since before Silicon Valley was even an idea.

      2 replies 4 retweets 48 likes
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    10. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 18 Dec 2019
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      51. Some of the best investment opportunities are found just by stumbling into them in your personal life and appreciating how cool the company is. Peter Lynch was pretty much right about this and this is also a big reason why emotion and empathy can be advantageous.

      3 replies 12 retweets 165 likes
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      Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 18 Dec 2019
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      52. Someone asked for elaboration on tweet #3. You can count the present value of real estate operating leases as debt if you want, I suppose, but you should think about the lease rejection damages cap. 502(b)(6) https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/11/502 …

      11:22 AM - 18 Dec 2019
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      • Walking On Sunshine Fort Bourtange Baud'Dib AReviewOrTwo Tom capicon
      1 reply 2 retweets 52 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 18 Dec 2019
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          53. Following up, it’s hard to perfectly transmit knowledge and sometimes the understanding of a subject becomes goofy because the knowledge has become a Xerox of a Xerox of a Xerox of itself. Knowledge is viral and without close inspection, can rot and become antiknowledge.

          2 replies 8 retweets 70 likes
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        3. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          54. This has happened with people considering real estate leases as a form of debt, but it has also happened generally. If you copy a mentor or authority figure blindly, you will copy their defects as well. Learning through osmosis is wonderful but also dangerous.

          1 reply 5 retweets 65 likes
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        4. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          55. In investing, as in life in general, do not be afraid to weaponize any (legal) advantage the world has granted you. The world will certainly not be afraid to weaponize your disadvantages against you.

          1 reply 14 retweets 132 likes
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        5. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          56. Capital allocation is just as much about anticipating and influencing the sequence of events as it is about allocating capital. What’s optimal in one scenario isn’t in another. There’s more to it than choosing between dividends and stock buybacks.

          2 replies 5 retweets 64 likes
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        6. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          57. It’s easy to conform your capital allocation decisions to the opportunities presented to you. It’s harder to make the opportunities presented to you conform to your ideal capital allocation policy. But it is possible. Companies that learn how can create fortunes.

          1 reply 2 retweets 45 likes
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        7. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          58. Elaborating on earlier, consider Teledyne. Earnings fell in half from 1973 to 1974 because of problems at one of its subsidiaries, Argonaut, related to medical malpractice insurance. Stock took a beating, and the co. took the opportunity to tender for huge chunks of shares.

          1 reply 2 retweets 28 likes
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        8. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          59. According to a presentation by Leon Cooperman, Teledyne engaged in three separate tender offers from 1974 through 1975, repurchasing from between ~10% and ~20% of its outstanding shares in each of them Amazing, considering Teledyne’s troubles at the time.

          1 reply 1 retweet 32 likes
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        9. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          60. But just how bad off was Teledyne? Although Argonaut shored up its malpractice reserves, some of the company’s losses in 1974 came from its investment portfolio. There was more to the story than poor underwriting results, the seriousness of which MAY have been embellished.pic.twitter.com/QfUhWkGzSY

          1 reply 0 retweets 33 likes
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        10. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          61. For example, when talking to Congress about its NY biz, the CEO of Argonaut admitted that of $69 million of malpractice reserves, Argonaut had only paid out about $24k on its policies. An analysis by an outside firm estimated Argonaut was actually about 2.6x overreserved.pic.twitter.com/wNZBk6O451

          1 reply 1 retweet 34 likes
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        11. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          62. Funny thing about increasing your loss reserves as an insurer. Doing so lowers reported earnings, and can make a business look less profitable than it actually is. Maybe it’s a coincidence that so many of Teledyne’s massive tender offers happened around this time.pic.twitter.com/gN0jrVBHhT

          1 reply 0 retweets 49 likes
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        12. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          63. Or maybe it wasn’t a coincidence, and Singleton knew what he was doing. At the same time Teledyne was reporting losses from its insurance businesses, its other businesses continued to grow. But it was able to buy in shares at a discount to what it paid a few years earlier.

          1 reply 0 retweets 37 likes
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        13. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          64. After insurance results turned in ‘75, the stock soared and became a multibagger from the tender offer prices. With the Argonaut losses, Teledyne had time to do big tenders at low prices. That’s why sequencing and narrative management are important to capital allocation.

          2 replies 4 retweets 49 likes
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        14. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          65. A good CEO will try to position the company to perform optimally in the next part of the sequence OR alter the sequence to optimize current reality. $TSLA would be dead now if Musk failed at this, which is why it’s wrong to chastise him for issuing shares at $243.

          1 reply 1 retweet 50 likes
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        15. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          66. Because if he didn’t issue shares at $243, the stock would not be at $404 now. It would be at $0, or close to. The future is not independent of the past. It is dependent on it. By altering narrative, we alter the current “reality,” which in turn alters the future.

          1 reply 9 retweets 86 likes
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        16. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          67. Singleton altering perceptions of Teledyne’s profitability to buy back shares on the cheap and Musk performing elaborate 🐚 games to issue equity at high prices are two sides of the same coin. Both are legendary to me for seeing narrative & sequence as capital to allocate.

          3 replies 2 retweets 56 likes
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        17. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          68. $L is ALLEGED to have used a similar trick on Boardwalk Pipeline, by deliberately tanking the units to exercise its call on them at lower prices. Capital is not just cash and assets. It is perception, ideas, and time. Alter those and the rational uses of cash also change.

          1 reply 2 retweets 64 likes
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        18. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          69. Of course, I cannot prove any of this was done intentionally. I’m not suggesting it’s a matter of fact. But from the info I have been able to piece together, and noting Singleton’s genius in using reflexivity to build Teledyne, it’s an idea that makes sense to me.

          3 replies 0 retweets 26 likes
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        19. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          Sources for those who care: https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/leon-cooperman-value-investing-congress-henry-singleton.pdf … https://www.nytimes.com/1975/06/17/archives/argonauts-malpractice-premiums-in-74-amounted-to-35million-claims.html … https://www.nytimes.com/1975/06/08/archives/for-argonaut-profits-proved-illusory.html … https://www.milbank.org/wp-content/uploads/mq/volume-55/issue-02/55-2-The-Malpractice-Controversy-and-the-Quality-of-Patient-Care.pdf … https://news.bloomberglaw.com/mergers-and-antitrust/loews-must-face-suit-alleging-pipeline-stock-option-gamesmanship …

          2 replies 3 retweets 41 likes
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        20. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          70. Ken Fisher shouldn’t be shamed for discussing the use of LSD. Investing is a creative field more than a scientific one, and certain drugs do boost creativity by helping you make unique connections. I wish more investors would talk about how drugs influence their investing.

          6 replies 3 retweets 83 likes
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        21. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          71. If you pay up to invest in moats you should be careful not to drown in them. If a company’s moat begins to degrade, you can get a deadly combination of decreased earnings power and multiple compression. All of a sudden the sure thing becomes a sure loser.

          4 replies 11 retweets 82 likes
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        22. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 19 Dec 2019
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          Liz Retweeted Liz

          Screwed up my chaining. Thread continues here. https://twitter.com/laforeverhall/status/1207885870843318272?s=21 …https://twitter.com/LAForeverHall/status/1207885870843318272 …

          Liz added,

          Liz @LAForeverHall
          72. Portfolio diversification is like type diversification in Pokémon. If you just powerlevel Charmander, you risk getting BTFO by Misty’s Starmie in Cerulean City. Going all in will kill you eventually.
          Show this thread
          2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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        23. End of conversation

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