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LAForeverHall's profile
Liz
Liz
Liz
@LAForeverHall

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Liz

@LAForeverHall

ArIeS. InFp. ChAoTiC NeUtRaL. RaVenClAw. Investor, marketer, performance artist. My investing articles: https://lizardbrain.substack.com/ 

Joined March 2012

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    1. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      17. Company narrative metagame management is one of the primary roles of a good CEO and most do a poor job of it. Managing your narrative is a big aspect of capital allocation and can create or destroy fortunes for your shareholders.

      6 replies 34 retweets 347 likes
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    2. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      18. This is why Elon Musk may be one of the greatest CEOs of all time, ESPECIALLY if you think Tesla is worthless. Narrative management + capital allocation alters intrinsic value.

      6 replies 30 retweets 264 likes
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    3. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      19. Some of the most basic setups are basically just capital structure arbitrage. Have doubled my money on $MAR from the company replacing higher cost equity with lower cost debt. Doesn’t always work out but when it does it’s like putting biz performance on steroids.

      2 replies 5 retweets 152 likes
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    4. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      20. Dispassionate analysis will always have its place but emotion can add a ton of value to an investor’s skill set. Putting yourself in the customer’s shoes can help you share empathy with them, which can tell you a lot about WHY they use the products and services they do.

      3 replies 16 retweets 163 likes
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    5. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      21. Distressed situations are fascinating because they’re just as much about game theory as they are about legal protections and rights. The Vulture Investors by Hilary Rosenberg is a fun book on the subject, for those of us (mostly) locked out of this game.

      4 replies 16 retweets 193 likes
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    6. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      22. Markel’s culture is overrated. The company’s predecessor was literally formed to take advantage of regulatory capture its founder created. Here’s $MKL co-CEO Richie Whitt talking about the scheme. “It was pretty brilliant.” I’ll say. https://www.carriermanagement.com/news/2016/09/19/158932.htm …pic.twitter.com/dtj2JxoEXs

      2 replies 16 retweets 115 likes
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    7. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      23. Alternatively, $MKL culture is underrated because the company has a history of being kinda clever and sneaky. Choose your own adventure. I own $MO. I’m not beyond making money from regulatory capture. 😂

      1 reply 4 retweets 80 likes
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    8. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      24. Economic moats are cool but aren’t the only thing. Commoditized businesses can be great investments despite low AVERAGE returns if the range of possible outcomes is wide enough.

      1 reply 8 retweets 117 likes
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    9. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      25. For example, industries with relatively low short term price elasticity of supply occasionally experience jackpot economics when the service they’re supplying is mission critical. See: shipping.

      4 replies 11 retweets 159 likes
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    10. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      26. In highly reflexive businesses, short sellers are kind of like economic terrorists by reducing the range of possible intrinsic value outcomes.

      4 replies 3 retweets 54 likes
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      Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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      27. The pink sheets are one of the last Wild West markets in, well, the West. The SEC’s new proposed rule may make trading many of the stocks there much more difficult in the next few months. Looking forward to major dislocations, if so. Do the homework now to be ready.

      5:06 AM - 15 Dec 2019
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      • Josh Winter Irving Soh Gregory Vousvounis JG Dr Pablo Fetter Dean sthlm investor mdcarlso @Luxslave101
      3 replies 7 retweets 78 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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          28. Businesses that don’t have economic moats yet but are developing them can be better investments than businesses that already do.

          2 replies 28 retweets 246 likes
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        3. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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          29. Social hierarchies come natural to humans, so entities that sell perceived access to higher tiers of those hierarchies will always be in demand. Social signaling never dies and neither will lux goods and services.

          1 reply 30 retweets 277 likes
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        4. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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          30. The economy is creating more wealthy people and more poor people. The middle gets eaten by the economic meat grinder. The same is true for businesses. Midline is usually the worst place to be. High end and low end are key to the American Carnage portfolio.

          2 replies 21 retweets 172 likes
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        5. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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          31. You can run your own John Malone home game. Dividend stocks are for tax deferred accounts and geezers who want an extra $20 per month in income to supplement their SSI. Compounders are for taxable, just gotta hold them til you die so your heirs get a cost basis step-up.

          2 replies 2 retweets 91 likes
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        6. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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          32. LTV/CAC analysis can really screw you up if you don’t consider cohorts and scale of spend. Often, your earliest adopters are your biggest fans. If you don’t have an internal growth engine, there’s a good chance you’ll run into diseconomies of scale in customer acquisition.

          1 reply 15 retweets 172 likes
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        7. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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          33. Real estate leases serve as a hedge against Wholesale Transfer Pricing. Advertising may be the new rent, but the rent is month-to-month so if you don’t expect to get squeezed it’s your own fault.

          2 replies 2 retweets 58 likes
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        8. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 15 Dec 2019
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          34. Insurance tends to be an awful business, but a fun way to check the trend in reserving adequacy is converting calendar year loss development triangles into accident year ones. Insurance has goofy accounting so sometimes you can gain insight from the granularity.

          1 reply 1 retweet 42 likes
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        9. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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          35. Insurance float is one of the worst kinds of float because what you can do with it is heavily regulated. If someone is starting an insurer for float, run away. There’s a good chance they’re either living decades in the past, planning a scheme, or lacking in creativity.

          2 replies 7 retweets 103 likes
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        10. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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          36. Anti-prestige businesses are often not appreciated on the market. There’s often value in companies that cater to non-coastal regions and rural communities.

          4 replies 5 retweets 149 likes
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        11. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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          37. Having a list of businesses that should do well in alternate economic environments can be useful to help you move quickly if things change. $FMBL will make a killing if interest rates rise, for example, because of its huge base of non-interest bearing deposits.

          1 reply 5 retweets 92 likes
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        12. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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          38. Get on the mailing lists of the major investment newsletter publishers. Sometimes they’ll pitch a small cap stock for months at a time in their advertising, if the return on ad spend is high enough. Between a small float and a million Boomers, interesting things can happen.

          4 replies 5 retweets 91 likes
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        13. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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          39. Alternatively, just check out Stock Gumshoe and avoid the spam. There’s a guy there who analyzes the advertisements and outs the stocks they’re pitching. Sometimes the momentum from a repeated pitch alone is enough to be worth a small wager. http://www.stockgumshoe.com 

          1 reply 5 retweets 139 likes
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        14. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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          40. Who knows how long it will last with the new proposed SEC rule, but there is an opportunity to create catalysts with Pink Sheet stocks that don’t post their financials publicly. Using shareholder rights laws to get and share them, you can sometimes help market efficiency.

          2 replies 2 retweets 32 likes
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        15. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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          41. Structural subordination sounds like a BDSM theme but unfortunately it’s just a credit term mostly relevant in distress scenarios. Well, I guess it’s not that different.

          3 replies 2 retweets 31 likes
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        16. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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          42. Jeff Bezos is a better capital allocator than Warren Buffett. $AMZN $BRK

          3 replies 10 retweets 91 likes
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        17. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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          43. Stock ownership doesn’t necessarily represent partial business ownership in any realistic sense. He who has the gold makes the rules.

          3 replies 5 retweets 58 likes
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        18. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 16 Dec 2019
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          44. Not every company is even trying to become more competitive over time. Many exist only to provide sinecures to their agent operators. There’s money to be made in companies that bother to care.

          3 replies 18 retweets 104 likes
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        19. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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          45. Massive presentations about a new position are massive not because that much information is relevant, but because it looks more convincing and shows people you “did your homework” Using research as marketing. Very smart.

          1 reply 14 retweets 116 likes
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        20. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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          46. The best players in bad industries are worth investigating. If economics are so poor most companies can’t make money, you MAY not have to deal with new players boosting industry capacity. Top dog’s scale can let it wring out profits surrounded by a moat of broken glass.

          2 replies 11 retweets 132 likes
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        21. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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          47. Real estate has some unique advantages in terms of leverage and taxes, but also has unique problems. If you don’t manage it yourself, you’re subject to an agency problem with expense pass throughs. If you do manage it yourself, you’ve bought a part time job.

          2 replies 12 retweets 124 likes
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        22. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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          48. The Greater Fool Theory is something to be cherished, not maligned. Playing it opens up a whole new world of opportunities where psychology is a competitive advantage. But if you never try, you’ll never get better.

          2 replies 6 retweets 82 likes
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        23. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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          49. $GOOG and $FB have faced a lot of criticism about their ads not working. Not a new problem. Most ads either don’t work or are hard to measure and advertising agencies have been feasting on that opacity for decades. Only when their lunch was eaten did they start crying foul.

          2 replies 10 retweets 99 likes
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        24. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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          50. There is a misunderstanding that advertising returns could not be measured before big tech came along and provided a treasure trove of data. This is false. Keyed ads have been a thing in direct response advertising since before Silicon Valley was even an idea.

          2 replies 4 retweets 48 likes
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        25. Liz‏ @LAForeverHall 17 Dec 2019
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          Halfway there. Even fifty is hard without relying on basic bitch truisms! Time for a lunch break! Thanks to everyone who has enjoyed and shared my thread so far. 😄

          4 replies 0 retweets 71 likes
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        26. End of conversation

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