Just broke Venkat so I’ll do my own assignment. 1 like = 1 opinion on... investing, I guess. Maybe a few per like if no one wants to play.https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1205977370483556352 …
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11. Using history beyond the past twenty years as your understanding of the limits of what sort of corporate growth rates are possible is like using a dowsing rod to start your own water utility. The world really is different now and what didn’t used to be possible now is.
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13. Value investing and growth/momentum investing both work and it’s important to respect and try to integrate the best ideas from each investing style into your own. Don’t be a cultist to one style. You’re only harming yourself and your family by drinking the Kool-Aid.
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14. Financial statements are usually the outputs of a company’s value drivers, not the value drivers themselves. Learning adjacent skill sets, such as direct response marketing, can open up opportunities to you that others can’t yet see. I recommend Tested Advertising Methods.
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15. Knowledge is abundant and by itself is only rarely a competitive advantage. But you can create an edge by synthesizing knowledge to create an understanding that is unique to you.
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Taking a break now that I’ve worked through my backlog. Will do more later if more likes come, though.
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16. The strength of the crypto and pot stock bubbles were influenced in part by how aggressively they were hyped by investment newsletters. The size of the industry would surprise most people. The largest co. has a subscriber base in the seven figures.
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17. Company narrative metagame management is one of the primary roles of a good CEO and most do a poor job of it. Managing your narrative is a big aspect of capital allocation and can create or destroy fortunes for your shareholders.
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18. This is why Elon Musk may be one of the greatest CEOs of all time, ESPECIALLY if you think Tesla is worthless. Narrative management + capital allocation alters intrinsic value.
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19. Some of the most basic setups are basically just capital structure arbitrage. Have doubled my money on
$MAR from the company replacing higher cost equity with lower cost debt. Doesn’t always work out but when it does it’s like putting biz performance on steroids.Prikaži ovu nit -
20. Dispassionate analysis will always have its place but emotion can add a ton of value to an investor’s skill set. Putting yourself in the customer’s shoes can help you share empathy with them, which can tell you a lot about WHY they use the products and services they do.
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21. Distressed situations are fascinating because they’re just as much about game theory as they are about legal protections and rights. The Vulture Investors by Hilary Rosenberg is a fun book on the subject, for those of us (mostly) locked out of this game.
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22. Markel’s culture is overrated. The company’s predecessor was literally formed to take advantage of regulatory capture its founder created. Here’s
$MKL co-CEO Richie Whitt talking about the scheme. “It was pretty brilliant.” I’ll say. https://www.carriermanagement.com/news/2016/09/19/158932.htm …pic.twitter.com/dtj2JxoEXs
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24. Economic moats are cool but aren’t the only thing. Commoditized businesses can be great investments despite low AVERAGE returns if the range of possible outcomes is wide enough.
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25. For example, industries with relatively low short term price elasticity of supply occasionally experience jackpot economics when the service they’re supplying is mission critical. See: shipping.
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26. In highly reflexive businesses, short sellers are kind of like economic terrorists by reducing the range of possible intrinsic value outcomes.
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27. The pink sheets are one of the last Wild West markets in, well, the West. The SEC’s new proposed rule may make trading many of the stocks there much more difficult in the next few months. Looking forward to major dislocations, if so. Do the homework now to be ready.
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28. Businesses that don’t have economic moats yet but are developing them can be better investments than businesses that already do.
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29. Social hierarchies come natural to humans, so entities that sell perceived access to higher tiers of those hierarchies will always be in demand. Social signaling never dies and neither will lux goods and services.
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30. The economy is creating more wealthy people and more poor people. The middle gets eaten by the economic meat grinder. The same is true for businesses. Midline is usually the worst place to be. High end and low end are key to the American Carnage portfolio.
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31. You can run your own John Malone home game. Dividend stocks are for tax deferred accounts and geezers who want an extra $20 per month in income to supplement their SSI. Compounders are for taxable, just gotta hold them til you die so your heirs get a cost basis step-up.
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32. LTV/CAC analysis can really screw you up if you don’t consider cohorts and scale of spend. Often, your earliest adopters are your biggest fans. If you don’t have an internal growth engine, there’s a good chance you’ll run into diseconomies of scale in customer acquisition.
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33. Real estate leases serve as a hedge against Wholesale Transfer Pricing. Advertising may be the new rent, but the rent is month-to-month so if you don’t expect to get squeezed it’s your own fault.
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34. Insurance tends to be an awful business, but a fun way to check the trend in reserving adequacy is converting calendar year loss development triangles into accident year ones. Insurance has goofy accounting so sometimes you can gain insight from the granularity.
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35. Insurance float is one of the worst kinds of float because what you can do with it is heavily regulated. If someone is starting an insurer for float, run away. There’s a good chance they’re either living decades in the past, planning a scheme, or lacking in creativity.
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36. Anti-prestige businesses are often not appreciated on the market. There’s often value in companies that cater to non-coastal regions and rural communities.
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37. Having a list of businesses that should do well in alternate economic environments can be useful to help you move quickly if things change.
$FMBL will make a killing if interest rates rise, for example, because of its huge base of non-interest bearing deposits.Prikaži ovu nit -
38. Get on the mailing lists of the major investment newsletter publishers. Sometimes they’ll pitch a small cap stock for months at a time in their advertising, if the return on ad spend is high enough. Between a small float and a million Boomers, interesting things can happen.
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39. Alternatively, just check out Stock Gumshoe and avoid the spam. There’s a guy there who analyzes the advertisements and outs the stocks they’re pitching. Sometimes the momentum from a repeated pitch alone is enough to be worth a small wager. http://www.stockgumshoe.com
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