Two things I learned today 1. In forecasting, no domain in which humans clearly outperform crude extrapolation algos, less still sophisticated statistical ones 2. The only predictor of an expert’s ability to make accurate forecasts is fame: The more famous make worse forecastshttps://twitter.com/patrick_oshag/status/985130510669271042 …
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Replying to @patrick_oshag @verdadcap
On 1 you can better forecast what your spouse will do or how she will react to anything you do better than algorithms;)
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This is theory of minds that I know that you know that I know which we neither fully understand nor have we modeled particularly well. It is also the basis for much human behavior, choice, dexdption, influence, game theory
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, add 2 at a time. 1 log often dies out. W/ 2 you get surface area & turbulence to keep it going