Exhausted in terms of combat effectiveness. What follows next I don’t know. Maybe a ceasefire where both sides reorganize and resupply, maybe a settlement. It depends on the course of the war and the situation in Russia. End.
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I try not to make too many predictions. I think given all the problems in the Russian campaign, delusional assumptions, an unworkable concept of operations, little prepared for a sustained war like this, I give it ~3 more weeks before this is an exhausted force. 1/
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That’s not indicative of either side winning, or the war ending. I can’t predict how the next few weeks will go. Just looking at it from my limited perspective, I see this phase of it as bounded, especially given how the war began.
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I fear folks may read this too positively. A lot can happen in a few weeks. A ceasefire is often not the end of a war, but rather may enable its continuation.
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From your lips to god’s ear. In the mean time, a lot of innocent people are going to die.
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Curious where the 3-week estimate comes from? Is that them running out of supplies, willpower, equipment or something else?
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It is an estimate, neither of the 2 sides seems to last more than 3 weeks, add to that that there are more and more people against Putin in Moscow, so an overthrow is not madness, it is possible. But of course, anything can happen here. Much information is not reliable
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I really, really, really hope you're right.
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3 weeks? My man-- theyre not even 2 weeks in and they're out of gas, out of food, and, reportedly, out of men in theatre. This op is toast by the end of this upcoming week.
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Yep. It was supposedly a "15-day" war (excuse me, special military operation).
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Does this imply a Ukrainian 'military victory ' is likely?
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I wouldn’t read it as a forecast of victory for either side. It is a point at which Russia will have to reassess its capabilities and goals. Less about outcomes, more about inertia.
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