Michael Kofman

@KofmanMichael

Director, Russia Studies at CNA. Senior Adjunct Fellow, CNAS. I follow Russian military capabilities, operations & strategy. Opinions are mine alone, hopefully.

Washington DC area
russianmilitaryanalysis.wordpress.com
Joined May 2020
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  1. 3 minutes ago

    Things are murky in terms of military activity. Russian political messaging on Ukraine has been consistent and worrisome this year. The military deployments and exercises have been there to match.

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  2. 29 minutes ago

    I’m not sure how we got to military buildup. That it is not. There is puzzling military activity, namely 41st CAA units changing position for reasons unclear, but not an influx of new forces. The issue is that I wouldn’t judge the situation based on these few days. 1/

    2 replies 3 retweets 19 likes
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  3. Retweeted
    4 hours ago

    В последние дни в интернете и в СМИ говорят о новой концентрации войск РФ у границы с Украиной. Мы изучили информацию, имеющуюся в открытых источниках, и хотя мы пока не видим весенних масштабов переброски техники, причины для беспокойства все равно есть

    1 reply 39 retweets 63 likes
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  4. Retweeted
    21 hours ago

    Satellite image taken today by reveals presence of a large ground forces deployment — incl. tanks, APCs, self-propelled artillery — to a training area north of Yelnya, Russia.

    52 replies 173 retweets 435 likes
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  5. Oct 31

    Agree, adversaries are not going to believe declaratory policy. We don’t believe theirs. But we don’t have tactical nuclear weapons forward deployed in theater. So, policy aside, what nuclear weapons would we use to offset Chinese conventional superiority?

    I personally do not think the Biden administration will adopt a nuclear No First Use policy, and this article by gives insight into major reason why: because allies will believe such a pledge, while adversaries won’t. THREAD 1/8
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    1 reply 2 retweets 6 likes
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  6. Oct 31

    Good thread.

    Lots of people note that hard kill APS rarely have more than 2-4 rounds available on each aspect, ever wondered why? A(nother) thread!
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    1 retweet 17 likes
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  7. Oct 31

    There is a history of escalation scares & coercive deployments that resolve peacefully. So there's no reason to commit to an interpretation without compelling evidence, but Russian force movements offer cause for concern & the situation merits watching in the coming weeks/months.

    2 replies 20 retweets 81 likes
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  8. Oct 31

    Re: comments on the military situation surrounding Ukraine. People tend to have two settings, either nothing happening, or invasion tomorrow. At the moment it is a developing situation. It's not 'nothing happening' and it doesn't mean that there will be an offensive op tomorrow.

    7 replies 49 retweets 215 likes
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  9. Oct 31

    Then a while ago we had this, 90th TD on a visit to Yelnya.

    BMPT tank support vehicles from the 90th Tank Division in Yelnya, Smolensk Oblast.
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  10. Oct 31

    Here The Lookout's post is quite helpful, discussing the appearance of a new concentration of forces in Yelnya that emerged in recent days, and unlikely to belong to the 144th MRD.

    Sentinel-1 SAR-imagery of Yelnya this morning (October 31st) shows significant changes since the 26th. A new parking area has been filled, and the original has been expanded. Main parking area now 900m long. This is a serious concentration of Russian Army units and equipment.
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    1 reply 3 retweets 14 likes
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  11. Oct 31

    Elements of the 41st CAA were parked in Pogonovo after March-April, supposedly to participate in Zapad-2021 exercises. They never left after the exercise which concluded mid-September. Then began loading and moving out over the past week.

    2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
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  12. Oct 31

    Commercial sat imagery suggests that units parked at Pogonovo began leaving over a week ago. A new concentration has appeared near Yelnya in recent days. The 144th is an unfilled, understrength division. It appears that elements of the 41st have shifted position to Yelnya. 1/

    2 replies 7 retweets 41 likes
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  13. Retweeted
    Oct 21

    Russian equipment from the 41st Combined Arms Army stationed at Pogonovo is being moved out. The big question is where to.

    3 replies 19 retweets 43 likes
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  14. Retweeted
    Oct 31

    Sentinel-1 SAR-imagery of Yelnya this morning (October 31st) shows significant changes since the 26th. A new parking area has been filled, and the original has been expanded. Main parking area now 900m long. This is a serious concentration of Russian Army units and equipment.

    2 replies 60 retweets 107 likes
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  15. Oct 31

    Very sad to find out that Jake is not with us anymore.

    Jamestown mourns the passing of valued analyst and contributor Dr. Jacob W. Kipp, a renowned expert on the Russian military.
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  16. Oct 30

    Good stuff. We need a causes of war thread next.

    I asked my students to think about a surprisingly neglected question in international politics: why violence? More directly, why do states resort to shooting guns at one another? [THREAD]
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    3 replies 22 likes
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  17. Oct 29

    Same. I would not draw conclusions, but I think the situation merits vigilance, and cause for concern. Folks who follow me know I'm not in the alarmism business.

    For me, it's too early to draw any conclusions, but if you're interested in more firm opinions, check what experts like or have written.
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    4 replies 4 retweets 50 likes
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  18. Oct 29

    41st CAA elements along with supporting units had left Pogonovo and repositioned near Yelnya.

    0:14
    Video reportedly of the Central Military District’s 448th Missile Brigade’s Iskander-M missile systems outside of Bryansk near the border with Ukraine from October 27th. 7/
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    3 replies 13 retweets 45 likes
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  19. Oct 28

    To the numerous enthusiasts out there, please don't post with comments about winter and offensive operations. I'm from Eastern Europe. Trust me, this region has wars in winter.

    3 replies 10 retweets 109 likes
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  20. Oct 28

    The point of my comment about Ukraine is that I think there is a developing situation, and it could turn into something significant. Yes, in the winter (like 2015). Not in the next few days, but weeks/months. Overall, I don't think you're seeing a drill or regular training.

    10 replies 66 retweets 184 likes
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