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Robert Daly: "One Country, Two Systems, has failed in both Hong Kong and Taiwan...as an engine for building consensus in favor of Chinese governance...is dead in the water. It seems clear that it is discredited outside of Beijing, adds that it can still be enforced by force
Daly believes that China has 3 options: 1. Absorb Taiwan through force 2. Change tactics and launch new phase of 'smile diplomacy' of cultural/policy methods 3. Wait out the second Tsai Administration - most likely the course of events
Daly believes now is not time for "adventurism" in America's options towards the cross-strait relationship.
.@AbeDenmark : "Something to watch is the possible reduction of influence of Taiwanese businesspeople living in the mainland," notes that investments from TW to mainland China underwent a reduction
Denmark: "It's going to take more than tourists and investments. What China does outside of the Cross-strait context, especially with relation to Hong Kong, impacts Cross-strait relations."
Denmark finds opportunity for US to work substantively, including enhancing trade and investment relationship with Taiwan. "Moving that process forward would both have a symbolic message of engagement with Taiwan, but substantively help Taiwan's economy and America's economy"
Future KMT leaders, according to Tsao, will be leading a party with a depleted political war chest and intra-KMT identity debates. "I would say that uniting people together is the belief in democracy...it's something both camps agree with."
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