Kissinger Institute

Nadia Tsao, dir. of @RadioFreeAsia Mandarin Service : "1.18 million first-time voters" participated in the 2020 Taiwan election, with most votes being split between Green DPP and blue KMT. Independent voters still made up a significant share of voters

Tsao says turnout was key, and both KMT and DPP "used a sense of crisis to drive out the vote."

In Kaohsiung, many residents "were upset" on unfulfilled promises during Han Kuo-Yu's campaign as mayor, which reflected in poor results in Kaohsiung in 2020. Tsao observes that Han may be put on the defensive in future elections

One key question of the election, according to Tsao, is: "Who can defend Taiwan's sovereignty, and who can defend democracy?"

Robert Daly: "One Country, Two Systems, has failed in both Hong Kong and Taiwan...as an engine for building consensus in favor of Chinese governance...is dead in the water. It seems clear that it is discredited outside of Beijing, adds that it can still be enforced by force

Daly believes that China has 3 options: 1. Absorb Taiwan through force 2. Change tactics and launch new phase of 'smile diplomacy' of cultural/policy methods 3. Wait out the second Tsai Administration - most likely the course of events

Daly believes now is not time for "adventurism" in America's options towards the cross-strait relationship.

.@AbeDenmark : "Something to watch is the possible reduction of influence of Taiwanese businesspeople living in the mainland," notes that investments from TW to mainland China underwent a reduction

Denmark: "It's going to take more than tourists and investments. What China does outside of the Cross-strait context, especially with relation to Hong Kong, impacts Cross-strait relations."

Denmark finds opportunity for US to work substantively, including enhancing trade and investment relationship with Taiwan. "Moving that process forward would both have a symbolic message of engagement with Taiwan, but substantively help Taiwan's economy and America's economy"