Kissinger Institute

Sun: "In particular, [Beijing] wants to perfect a system where the Hong Kong Chief executive respects and reports to the central government..." and suggests that the Central government is dissatisfied, and that there may be HK government dismissals down the road

James V. Feinerman observes "a kind of forbearance with regard to worst practices of the PRC government in times of stress, despite the expectation that US would rally for democracy" and a divide between the US Congress and Executive branch

Feinerman: "The real test came with previous demonstrations in 2014 where a couple things came to the fore:" democratic reforms expected in HK were dashed, and "created atmosphere of unlikelihood that things will be peacefully resolved," ...

"...and puts pressure on US support and ability to ignore some of the persistent problems that have existed since 1997, exacerbated by 2014"

Feinerman perceived "Hong Kong as a very important" but "very bad" test of democracy for China..."the question is whether this is one-off or an experiment which will be used as a trial balloon for what might happen in the rest of China"

Daly: "If we were to change the status of Hong Kong, would that harm American economic interests?" Feinerman: "The vast infrastructure of the legal and banking system is intimately connected with global markets, but especially the U.S." and expects collateral damage

Yun Sun on Beijing's perception of HK as a security or existential threat: "Bookstores in Hong Kong that were critical to Xi were one minor threats," under expansive definition of national security by Beijing.

James Feinerman on Hong Kong legislation pending in US Congress: "If this new Act passes actually changes HK's status to a Chinese city, its status as a free port will be threatened. The one possible upside benefit is that the provision protecting those from protest retaliation"

"...but if they're not outside Mainland China's jurisdiction, that part of the act may not do much anyways"

Daly: "do deliberations in the United States make a difference in Hong Kong going forward?" Feinerman: "There is a kind of global concern with the United States' actions, and people focused on the issue with regards to China, and then, more granularly, people that care about HK"

Sun on retaliatory actions by Beijing: "to assume the Chinese government is going to use the same tactics as Tiananmen is wrong in this case"

Hung: "I think that there is always pressure to make HK Judges align with Chinese norms and practices," but also mentions that there is already an NPC interpretation of Basic Law. "The Central government has many means to control/contain HK's legal system"

The Appeals Court in HK is one issue, and Hung also finds that candidacy of foreign citizens to become HK judges will "change the nature and orientation of courts." All are options that have not been taken by Chinese government, but could be