Please can you all read this Tweetorial from one of our best geneticists? Heritability doesn't mean what you think it means. It's admirable that you achieved so much, but it doesn't mean "genius always finds a way".https://twitter.com/ProfSimonFisher/status/986923915481178113?s=19 …
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Replying to @CaroRowland @pharmacy_trader and
My tweet didn't have "always". I don't know why you link me to that. None of this is new to me.
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Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @pharmacy_trader and
Because you cite heritability estimates as evidence for lack of environmental effect on an individual's behaviour. The tweetorial explains why its a category error. Great if you already know this - most people don't. Sorry if I misunderstood your point ;)
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Replying to @CaroRowland @pharmacy_trader and
Sounds like more word games.
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Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @pharmacy_trader and
No. Crucial to grasp & communicate the key difference. Otherwise some will (and do) use high HEs as excuse not to spend money on education & public health. We scientists have to be mindful of how our work can be misinterpreted by policy makers.
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Replying to @CaroRowland @pharmacy_trader and
High H means that whatever E variation there is, it is not important to outcome variation. Obviously, trying to adjust further on that same E variation is unlikely to produce a big change. E sets a broad prior on expected gains from interventions.
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Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @pharmacy_trader and
... not important to outcome variation *in the population studied*, surely? E.g if population incl kids with library down the road *and* kids from societies where access to books involves a 3 mile daily walk, effect of access to books (E) on reading ability would be higher, no?
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Replying to @CaroRowland @pharmacy_trader and
Implied in my "that same E variation" I think. In any case, I think people vastly overestimate importance of trying to increase opportunity. The internet has made everything available for years, yet we see little change bc opportunity isn't the limiting factor, people are.
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Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @pharmacy_trader and
Yes I totally agree, though I don't necessarily think intervention is de facto hopeless, just that it a) is likely to be much harder and costlier than people think & b) probably requires a much better knowledge of how child's brain develops than we have now.
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Replying to @CaroRowland @pharmacy_trader and
I don't think we need to know much about child development. Just do large RCTs, get lucky. Try some stuff we didn't try already (e.g., give all kids Ritalin at school level). Ritalin has some interesting longitudinal evidence for crime.http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1203241 …
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I don't think interventions or environmental change is hopeless, but I have very little faith in social scientists due to their sheer incompetence and strong political bias.
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