Emil O W Kirkegaard

No, it is correct. Assume an average of 100 and a standard deviation of 15: then the average of the top half is 112. Assume a narrow-sense heritability of 0,5: then the next generation has an average of 106. No further regression to the mean in later generations.

But you can’t ascribe the original outcomes entirely to genetics. And the outcomes of future generations would be affected by the prosperity created from the high intelligence of the people on the island

I didn't ascribe it entirely to genetics: I assumed a narrow-sense heritability of 0,5, which is a reasoanble estimate by the way. I assumed that the environments are similar to the mainland. nothing more.

https://twitter.com/gcochran99/status/997759680721006592?s=21 …

Their descendants, natch. First generation has both good genes and better than average luck. Genes persist in later generations, luck does not.

Luck does not is a very very strong claim that seems highly unlikely to me.

"Luck", in terms of the factors that influence IQ, does not seem to include much shared family environment, at least not in typical western societies. Probably hitting the kid on the head with a hammer actually _would_ make a difference, but few people do that.

Yeah but it almost certainly includes how wealthy the society is