I'm unsure if you're saying something like "vague prejudice doesn't predict specific actions," which I agree with, or "the brain isn't bayesian at all"?
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Evidence shows that people use stereotypes reasonably and indeed they improve accuracy because they are accurate priors.
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To some extent, but when they get baked into policy it's tricky. E.g. if you preferentially interview men, you hire some amount of subpar men who would have been outperformed by the best of the women candidates
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This scenario happens when the prior is too strong, but research shows that people's stereotypes are generally too weak (ie underestimate true group differences), not too strong.
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In fact, it's not even entirely clear from the evidence he reviews that people shouldn't use stereotypes *more*, at least if we only care about accuracy.
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If anything, people seem to disregard statistics entirely: “I’m afraid of flying so we’re driving there.”
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Stereotypes result from observation or education or a combination. Eg without racial quotas, 50% of blacks would earn less than 10,000 per year. Today, one in three black men eventually to prison. Desire to survive=observation-based stereotypes.
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I'd even say it's the exact opposite. "I know a woman who is a math wizard, so it's wrong to say men are statistically better at math!" "There's a black man in my office who is much smarter than I am, therefore there are no differences in scores." "I'm friends with, so..."
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Presumably all people who form accurate stereotypes do so on the basis of evidence.
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