The key to understanding it is that a given area can have high diversity for multiple reasons. An area with a 50-50 White-Asian split has high diversity, but is not expected to perform poorly because composite groups perform well.
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Compare with an area with 50-50-Black-Hispanic mix. This will perform poorly because the constituent groups do so, but it has the exact same amount of diversity as the 50-50 White-Asian one. Statistically, thus, one can work out which predicts what.
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