Too much female education & careerism is the main cause. Related cultural issues are decrease in marriage rates, easier divorces, decreased social status of family life. Not sure how to fix it without using force. If I had power, I would do a bunch of RCTs.
From where, though? Every country with high tier people has below replacement fertility. So, without strict selection, immigration is just a another net negative on top of the population aging issue.https://twitter.com/reason/status/938117777927184384 …
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Economic incentives is always an obvious alternative to using force.
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Show me a big RCT that shows they work.
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You can just google 'random control trial financial incentives' or something. In general, I doubt we need any more proof that people react to incentives.
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They do seem to work, but the overall effects are limited. Pushing TFR by 0.1 or 0.2 is nice, but not sufficient.
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Depends on the size of the incentive. But what could be nice is a RCT estimating the effect for an incentive of a specific size.
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I'd take a 0.2 TFR any day. Would have a big effect on public finances related to aging.
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I mean, many countries have seen increases on that range or higher. But hard to ascribe causality.
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http://emilkirkegaard.dk/understanding_statistics/?app=tail_effects … in R: pnorm(130, 100, 15, lower.tail = F) for >=130, given N(100, 15)
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Add up their contributions, subtract their costs. For values that cannot be traced to individuals, spread the contribution/cost. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2564977 …
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well, every society selects for something, in the words of Cochran and Harpending
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arrow surely goes both way. men who consume porn are also less likely to make an effort
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If your country is attractive enough as a destination, who cares abt fertility in origin country? E.g. Germans to Switzerland.
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A prime aim of many (most) women is to give birth to and nurture children. Social and economic factors that obstruct the fulfillment of this desire are bound to lead to a falling off in women's sexual interest.
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"urban area in Japan revealed that mothers did experience greater cost during childcare than fathers. However, in contrast to our prediction, we found no sex differences in the ideal number of children between mothers and their husbands in many cases"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12110-016-9254-y …
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Japan should soon be a test case. if, along with cheaper housing and greater prestige to childbearing in an elderly-dominated country, it would only take a relatively small number of highly fertile people to reverse the trend
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exemplary on solving this dilemma;
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