It's not so much that they're innumerate, as they think groups exist in proportion with their visibility in the media.
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Replying to @dpinsen @KirkegaardEmil
It's part of a much more general phenomenon of superadditivity. Kahneman studied it in the 90s. For instance, ask people to estimate prob...
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...that high temp will be in range: A) 50 - 60 B) 60 - 70 C) 50 - 70 Then P(A) + P(B) > P(C) in the estimates. Attributed to "unpacking"
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Replying to @Rongwrong_ @dpinsen
Tetlock gives a bunch of examples of this in his books as well.
6:32 AM - 16 Aug 2017
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