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KirkegaardEmil's profile
Emil O W Kirkegaard
Emil O W Kirkegaard
Emil O W Kirkegaard
@KirkegaardEmil

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Emil O W Kirkegaard

@KirkegaardEmil

#psychology #genomics #hbd #rstats #statistics #genomics #transhumanism #dataviz #openscience #psychometrics @OpenPsychJour

Denmark
emilkirkegaard.dk
Joined January 2012

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    1. Emil O W Kirkegaard‏ @KirkegaardEmil 31 Oct 2016
      • Report Tweet

      The unreasonable effectiveness of physicists (and Brexit). http://infoproc.blogspot.dk/2016/10/how-brexit-was-won-and-unreasonable.html …

      1 reply 3 retweets 3 likes
    2. Ben Southwood‏Verified account @bswud 1 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KirkegaardEmil

      doesn't really get how markets work. No evidence it was more than 15% likely, just because it happened!!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Siberian Fox‏ @SilverVVulpes 1 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @bswud @KirkegaardEmil

      surprising amount of people don't seem to get that 15-35% chances happen

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Emil O W Kirkegaard‏ @KirkegaardEmil 1 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @SilverVVulpes @bswud

      A simple predictive model based on poll data said it was >50% likely to happen. No idea why the market was so certain.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Ben Southwood‏Verified account @bswud 1 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @SilverVVulpes

      you're being very simple minded, uncharacteristically so

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Emil O W Kirkegaard‏ @KirkegaardEmil 1 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @bswud @SilverVVulpes

      Look http://emilkirkegaard.dk/understanding_statistics/?app=brexit_model … ~45% leave chance with default settings. Add small bias in polling, then it's >50%.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Ben Southwood‏Verified account @bswud 1 Nov 2016
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      Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @SilverVVulpes

      the market will systematically outperform your model over large n of events

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. José Luis Ricón (Artir)‏ @ArtirKel 1 Nov 2016
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      Replying to @bswud @KirkegaardEmil @SilverVVulpes

      We could run an Emil vs the World to find out :)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Emil O W Kirkegaard‏ @KirkegaardEmil 1 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @ArtirKel @bswud @SilverVVulpes

      That doesn't sound like a fair competition. But free marketeers will be free marketeers...

      2:40 PM - 1 Nov 2016
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Ben Southwood‏Verified account @bswud 1 Nov 2016
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @ArtirKel @SilverVVulpes

          lol your only response is to claim our view is driven by ideology?!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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