doesn't really get how markets work. No evidence it was more than 15% likely, just because it happened!!
The unreasonable effectiveness of physicists (and Brexit). http://infoproc.blogspot.dk/2016/10/how-brexit-was-won-and-unreasonable.html …
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surprising amount of people don't seem to get that 15-35% chances happen
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A simple predictive model based on poll data said it was >50% likely to happen. No idea why the market was so certain.
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you're being very simple minded, uncharacteristically so
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Look http://emilkirkegaard.dk/understanding_statistics/?app=brexit_model … ~45% leave chance with default settings. Add small bias in polling, then it's >50%.
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the market will systematically outperform your model over large n of events
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We could run an Emil vs the World to find out :)
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That doesn't sound like a fair competition. But free marketeers will be free marketeers...
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