Hindsight not very off in this case. Model didn't adjust for bias otherwise predicted value around 2-3% leave win.https://twitter.com/KirkegaardEmil/status/745685098180259840 …
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I am more curious why other people were so far off.
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In a nutshell: What they thought was a "return to status quo" effect is actually a "conservative bonus" effect.
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Seems to just be standard social desirability bias.
End of conversation
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