The margin depends on the span chosen, but varies from about 0.0 to about 2.0 (span=0.5-1.0). #rstats
#Brexit predictive model prediction the day before: In favor of leave by about 0.6%point. http://emilkirkegaard.dk/understanding_statistics/?app=brexit_model …pic.twitter.com/9mCiBakylQ
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Really should choose a span value using cross-validation, but don't have time to write the code... 'hint hint'
#rstats
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Hm, that's a big difference from what superforecasters and the GJOpen people are saying.
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What do they know we don't? I mean, this is raw polling data + standard model.
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Furthermore, I looked at some recent polls and outcomes for these topics. They tend to underestimate nationalist/conservative %'s.
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Dilemma - I want betters http://tinyurl.com/hfanhpo to be right in general - but wrong this time
#Brexit -
You got what you asked for. ;)
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