@Kurrild kender du til forskning omkring social desirability bias i polling? nationalist partier klarer sig bedre end polls forudser.
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Replying to @KirkegaardEmil
Nej, ikke umiddelbart men måske
@fghjorth gør--?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
DF i danske data sidste valg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Danish_general_election,_2015 … gns. 10 sidste målinger 17.83, resultat 21.1 → 3.27%point bias
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SD valg i Sverige: data 2006-2015. 3/3 gange underestimeret. http://privat.bahnhof.se/wb492673//31%20Main%20frame%202006-2014.html …
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UK valg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election … Cons. underestimeret 3.5%point, UKIP 0.8%point.
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UK 2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election#Poll_results … Cons. 1.5%point. Jeg ser et mønster.
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Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @Kurrild
Meget forskning i SDB, men jeg kender ingen specifikt ift partier.
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Bizart? Jeg kunne heller ikke finde noget forskning i spærregrænser trods deres åbenlyse relevans for multiparty systemer
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Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @Kurrild
Lidt overraskende fsva SDB og partier. Men meget amerikansk domineret litteratur.
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Analyserne er nemme nok at lave, statistisk set. Data er besværlige at finde pga. sprogbarrierer. Kræver nok et team.
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