Why assume this is the result of some general quality of anti-immigration parties. No leftwing partys been overest by polls?
Now transfer this principle to #brexit and #trump and whatever election of nationalist/anti-immigration parties. https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/724302760477396994 …
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It's a typical effect of unpopular votes and the use of personal polling (e.g. phone). UK version: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor …
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Danish edition: http://erikgahner.dk/2015/vi-ved-ikke-hvad-der-gik-galt-med-analyseinstitutternes-vurdering-af-dansk-folkepartis-vaelgeropbakning/ … (horizontal line = election result)pic.twitter.com/VMCVj7vCQ7
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But still, Superforecasters give Trump 40% chances, and Brexit 12% or so.
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Have to be careful to base opinions on others' opinions like that, otherwise can get circular effects. :P
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@MaxCRoser bet your beliefsThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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