The opposite of Hanlon's Razor is something like "never attribute to stupidity what can be adequately explained by not actually wanting to do the thing."
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aka "much apparent incompetence is actually covert resistance to the unwelcome demands of authorities."
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IQ test scores rise by 10 points when you give test-takers incentives. For people with <100 IQs, the average effect on IQ is 15 points. https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/19/7716.full.pdf …
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Replying to @ArtirKel @s_r_constantin
same reaction. I was expecting this to be tested directly, but instead it’s a meta analysis (and one that looks pretty noisy?) plus a weird experiment where they asked people to watch 15m video of people taking tests and rate how motivated they seemed
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a friend also passes along two studies with more straightforward designs finding no effect: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29427313 and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30516088
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Plotting the effect sizes and standard errors from Duckworth's meta-analysis gives more reasons for skepticism. The effect is largely due to the three large outlier studies indicated in red. All 3 were authored by Stephen Breuning: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1988-09-20-mn-2318-story.html … (Graph credit:
@RCAFDM)pic.twitter.com/NGasgEwfiK
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Replying to @pnin1957 @browserdotsys and
> ... we excluded the three samples with raw effect sizes greater than g = 2.00 ?
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Replying to @simpolism @pnin1957 and
yes, saw that – apparently that reduces the effect size to .51 (and they chose to report the larger value as the headline result). but I continue not to believe it given that more direct tests found no effect
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Given the obvious publication bias in the plot, obvious left wing interest in a positive, and the largest effects from a known faker. This one needs a big pre reg study and I will bet money it will come out near zero.
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