I keep asking this question, but never get an answer. Is there any significant, academic economist with a proven track record of prediction, preferably quantified by @superforecaster or something similar? The only real contender here is @bryan_caplan, an arch-libertarian.
Well, as a student, maybe you didn't have much. But of your total wealth, maybe a quite large fraction. :p
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One of the first articles in my blog was actually a defense of bitcoin! back in 2013 https://nintil.com/2013/03/16/bitcoin-vs-el-oro-dineros-para-el-futuro/ …
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I go back and forth between an EMH theory of bitcoin prices and one where the technical barriers-to-entry were high enough that a select few were able to encounter that first billion-dollar bill on the sidewalk.
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Perhaps the better question is at what date the EMH theory takes over.
End of conversation
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