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I keep asking this question, but never get an answer. Is there any significant, academic economist with a proven track record of prediction, preferably quantified by @superforecaster or something similar? The only real contender here is @bryan_caplan, an arch-libertarian.
Basically, my trust in real expertise compels me to move my views towards those with proven track records. So right now, basically, it's a one man game for Caplan.
Bryan isn't really predicting important things, he's just arbitraging people's obviously-silly public statements. Still valuable and impressive, but I wouldn't necessarily want him to pick stocks for me.
What say you @bryan_caplan? Are you making big bucks on stocks or did you correctly predict and bet on crypto intead?
My liquid holdings have been 100% all-stock index funds for 25 years. I laughed at crypto at first.
Bad choice. Was an easy call for a libertarian, no? Most crypto rich people I know are libertarians who got in very early because fuck government.
Back then it wasn't unreasonable that crypto would go nowhere. I did put money in there, but not much
Well, as a student, maybe you didn't have much. But of your total wealth, maybe a quite large fraction. :p
One of the first articles in my blog was actually a defense of bitcoin! back in 2013 https://nintil.com/2013/03/16/bitcoin-vs-el-oro-dineros-para-el-futuro/ …
I go back and forth between an EMH theory of bitcoin prices and one where the technical barriers-to-entry were high enough that a select few were able to encounter that first billion-dollar bill on the sidewalk.
Why would you think economy is scientific? Psychology is the only scientific branch that has a proven track record of successful replication among all sciences.
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