Basically, my trust in real expertise compels me to move my views towards those with proven track records. So right now, basically, it's a one man game for Caplan.
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I keep asking this question, but never get an answer. Is there any significant, academic economist with a proven track record of prediction, preferably quantified by @superforecaster or something similar? The only real contender here is @bryan_caplan, an arch-libertarian.
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What’s interesting about Bryan’s bets is that his positions are heavily weighted to the baseline/status quo. He thinks radically but his predictions are actually pretty conservative. Which says a lot about successful predictions!
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Kind of, but not quite:https://www.econlib.org/archives/2016/05/why_i_win.html …
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Think Keynes was pretty good at the stock market if that counts.
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i think robert shiller predicted dotcom bubble and housing bubble
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I’d settle for an economic theory that could go back in time and make statistical predictions. It’s not science, though, it’s historical musings posing as science.
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