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KirkegaardEmil's profile
Emil O W Kirkegaard
Emil O W Kirkegaard
Emil O W Kirkegaard
@KirkegaardEmil

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Emil O W Kirkegaard

@KirkegaardEmil

#psychology #genomics #hbd #rstats #statistics #genomics #transhumanism #dataviz #openscience #psychometrics @OpenPsychJour

Denmark
emilkirkegaard.dk
Joined January 2012

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    1. Emil O W Kirkegaard‏ @KirkegaardEmil May 20
      • Report Tweet

      Higher Horizons. Extremely large study, modeled on some initial report of success. And then... nothing despite sample size of 64,000 kids from 67 schools. No gains in reading ability, in attitudes towards school, or classroom behavior, or anything else. https://archive.org/details/racialisolationi01unit/page/124 …pic.twitter.com/Q93Xuu0XgI

      1 reply 17 retweets 42 likes
    2. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim May 20
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KirkegaardEmil

      David Manheim Retweeted Emil O W Kirkegaard

      Studies don't need positive results to be meaningful or important. This is not nothing - it's strong evidence of non-effectiveness. And if people understood that, they'd know that this result frees resources for pursuing other promising ideas.https://twitter.com/KirkegaardEmil/status/1130695298572066817 …

      David Manheim added,

      Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
      Higher Horizons. Extremely large study, modeled on some initial report of success. And then... nothing despite sample size of 64,000 kids from 67 schools. No gains in reading ability, in attitudes towards school, or classroom behavior, or anything else. https://archive.org/details/racialisolationi01unit/page/124 … pic.twitter.com/Q93Xuu0XgI
      2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
    3. Timofey Pnin‏ @pnin1957 May 21
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @davidmanheim @KirkegaardEmil

      I don't think failures like the Higher Horizons program have had any effect on either educational research or practice. Similar programs, perhaps slightly tweaked, have been pursued again and again because people think such efforts SHOULD influence educational disparities.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim May 21
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      Replying to @pnin1957 @KirkegaardEmil

      Yes, that's part of the point. When you view these results as "failures to show this works," rather than "evidence this does not work," policymakers keep trying, and ignore the (implictly non-existent) evidence. tl;dr - Evidence-based policy should include negative evidence.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Emil O W Kirkegaard‏ @KirkegaardEmil May 21
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      Replying to @davidmanheim @pnin1957

      A Bayesian might say that this is due to lack of Bayesian reasoning. The way frequentist NHST is usually presented, when one finds p > alpha, there is no conclusion to draw except "failures to show this works", whereas really one can sometimes infer "this does not work".

      9:38 AM - 21 May 2019
      • 2 Likes
      • Ineedmoredata David Manheim
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim May 21
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          Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @pnin1957

          Agreed, a Bayesian might say that ;) Still, a frequentist can (and should) use the same data to derive a confidence interval for the effect size, which allows rejecting the hypothesis that the effect is "clinically" significant.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Emil O W Kirkegaard‏ @KirkegaardEmil May 21
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          Replying to @davidmanheim @pnin1957

          The more hardcore Bayesians will reject the use of conf. intervals as substitute cred. intervals, but that just shows their own odd philosophy of probability IMO, and not any mathematical error. I'm happy to interpret confidence intervals as credibility intervals (w. flat prior).

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim May 21
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @pnin1957

          I'm trying hard not to get baited into debating this. (But it's so tempting to do so, it's convincing me to close twitter and get work done.)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation

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