How to predict long-term effects of early intervention studies: very easy, just prior with very large density spike near 0. Why the prior? Well, extreme publication & citation bias. Look at this funnel! Famous studies all tiny, big studies are close to 0. https://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/?p=6657 pic.twitter.com/7JSIitRSnv
9:15 PM - 18 Oct 2018
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