This describes many "consensuses" in social psychology (including but not not just politicized ones). "Consensus" is a political argument. Validity and strength of underlying evidence is a scientific argument. https://twitter.com/Jon_StewartMill/status/1020094940167254022 …
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oh boy. I was not intending to contest the reality of that consensus -- or of its conclusions. my only pt was that there can be a diff b/w consensus as "what most scientists believe" and as "what most of the articles say."
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And the question that’s hard to answer about dissenters in surveys is: have they read the relevant primary literature and simply don’t agree with the prevailing interpretation, or are they experiencing the same distorted perceptions of salience & prevalence that laypeople do?
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Use publication record in the model.
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"Survey" is used pretty loosely there. Text searches of abstracts isn't what is generally considered a "survey". And authors reviewing their own works doesn't quite... smell right.
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I think Pew polls have come in about 87%. Oddly enough that is the same number that agree with consensus on evolution. (US results only)
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