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KirkegaardEmil's profile
Emil O W Kirkegaard
Emil O W Kirkegaard
Emil O W Kirkegaard
@KirkegaardEmil

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Emil O W Kirkegaard

@KirkegaardEmil

#psychology #genomics #hbd #rstats #statistics #genomics #transhumanism #dataviz #openscience #psychometrics @OpenPsychJour

Denmark
emilkirkegaard.dk
Joined January 2012

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    1. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion 28 May 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @NoamJStein

      Thanks!! I thought this, from the conclusion, summed up the replication failure. The graph you presented was of achievement scores. But achievement scores aren't really relevant to the way economists use the concept of time preference.pic.twitter.com/pIRdhbIIkk

      1 reply 0 retweets 20 likes
    2. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion 28 May 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @Noahpinion @NoamJStein

      In other words, even if the marshmallow test is a predictor of cognitive ability, if it can't predict lifelong behavioral stuff it should not be regarded as a measure of time preference by economists. Does that make sense?

      2 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
    3. Tyler‏ @tw_watts 28 May 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @Noahpinion @NoamJStein

      I would say we found evidence that time waited on the task did predict later achievement, but this prediction was much smaller than previously reported and it was substantially reduced by controls. We found almost 0 prediction to other behavioral measures.

      1 reply 3 retweets 29 likes
    4. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion 28 May 2018
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      Replying to @tw_watts @NoamJStein

      Right. The point here is that whatever the marshmallow test does measure, it doesn't seem to measure what many economists would like to think it measures - at least, if the results of this paper hold. Noam, does that make sense?

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    5. Noam‏ @NoamJStein 28 May 2018
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      Replying to @Noahpinion @tw_watts

      Can you elaborate on the "what many economists think it means"? Cog ability has a known robust link to time preference (e.g. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/62b2/baac4399ea781e9a247affa8a56886e746f2.pdf … from @GarettJones ), but why would economists think it measures behavioral problems?

      1 reply 4 retweets 12 likes
    6. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion 28 May 2018
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      Replying to @NoamJStein @tw_watts

      Assuming this latest paper holds up, it means marshmallow test isn't a good test of time preference as a trait. Trait preferences (as opposed to state-contingent preferences) should be able to predict behavior in a way that's consistent across the lifespan.

      2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
    7. Noah Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion 28 May 2018
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      Replying to @Noahpinion @NoamJStein @tw_watts

      That doesn't mean that trait time-preference doesn't exist (though @economistified) has done experiments showing it doesn't). Nor does it mean that the marshmallow test measures nothing of interest. It just means that the two aren't linked.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    8. Noam‏ @NoamJStein 28 May 2018
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      Replying to @Noahpinion @tw_watts @economistified

      A big problem is that all this stuff is tied together at the genetic level. Check this out from Wertz et al: http://sci-hub.tw/http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797617744542 …pic.twitter.com/jeBN9nGv57

      1 reply 3 retweets 18 likes
    9. Ian A Myles, MD/MPH, CDR‏ @lcdriammdmph 28 May 2018
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      Replying to @karlbykarlsmith @NoamJStein and

      Wait are you using twin studies for determining genetics in 2018? You can say heritable (which would include epigenetic, microbiome, etc) but "home environment" is genetic?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Emil O W Kirkegaard‏ @KirkegaardEmil 28 May 2018
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      Replying to @lcdriammdmph @karlbykarlsmith and

      Everything is heritable, home environment too. Using it and assuming causality as most people do is obviously a problem. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1601-183X.2009.00554.x/abstract … https://www.nature.com/articles/mp20152 … There's a meta-analysis with average h² of ~25% for home environment measures, but can't find it.

      6:39 PM - 28 May 2018
      • 2 Likes
      • Kaiser Söze Jonatan Pallesen
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Ian A Myles, MD/MPH, CDR‏ @lcdriammdmph 28 May 2018
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          Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @karlbykarlsmith and

          Only 2-3% of total variance= "significant" but not impressive. But at least this used actual genetics. Too often people use twin studies that (at best) imply heritability but then use term "genetic". Missing h2 probably microbiome and or methylation IMHO

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Ian A Myles, MD/MPH, CDR‏ @lcdriammdmph 28 May 2018
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          Replying to @lcdriammdmph @KirkegaardEmil and

          Furthermore the study linked to can't exclude reverse causation for the minor 3% variance. IE successful people more likely to mate, thus generating SNP pools that don't have functional importance.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Emil O W Kirkegaard‏ @KirkegaardEmil 28 May 2018
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          Replying to @lcdriammdmph @karlbykarlsmith and

          I'd say almost no one in the field thinks h² primarily reflect microbiome or epigenetics. I don't know of any surveys, but the history of this field is that everybody else constantly brings up new ad hoc models to avoid genetic causation, and they never pan out. YMMV

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        5. Ian A Myles, MD/MPH, CDR‏ @lcdriammdmph 28 May 2018
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          Replying to @KirkegaardEmil @karlbykarlsmith and

          No shock people that spent the last 40 years telling us that genetics explains everything only to have a rousing 3% of variance don't think that nongenetic modes of heritance matter. The only "avoiding" is the genetacists denying the clear reality of their failed GATTACA ideals.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Ian A Myles, MD/MPH, CDR‏ @lcdriammdmph 28 May 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @lcdriammdmph @KirkegaardEmil and

          And again, show causual alleles or accept reverse causation. Meanwhile, interventional studies using epigenetics and microbiome are yeilding results that knock out mice never did.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. End of conversation

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