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Seems like Caplan missed an easy angle in his book against education. He already has a pro-natalism book, so it seems a strange miss. Can't have libertarian paradise without breeding more libertarians. Too much female education stands in your way. http://www.nber.org/papers/w16856 pic.twitter.com/X46ZmpyonN
Punchline something like: while male over-education is socially wasteful, female over-education is literally the killer of civilization due to the fertility trade-off. One cannot continue a civilization with sub-replacement fertility.
This can be solved by targeted policies though. Highly educated women want more children than less educated women. They are just less likely to get them if society doesn't cater to their needs (parental leave and free childcare instead of money for children)
>Highly educated women want more children than less educated women. No they don't. There is a similar dysgenics pattern among number of desired children. Nordic countries have really strong parental leave laws, and still subreplacement fertility.
OK, let's say they want the same number. In some countries they want more, in others less. The Nordics however have also stopped dysgenic fertility among their native populations. Doesn't help them much with their dysgenic immigration for sure, but ...pic.twitter.com/OuBL7luCN9
In OKCupid data, clear negative slope for desired number. But yes, these OECD surveys don't find much for the education variant of this pattern (as you show). I don't think Nordics have stopped dysgenics among natives either. Here's some DK data. https://osf.io/3p4dx/ pic.twitter.com/84AYL8cCWx
The data are not perfect for this question, especially not because of the problem of the non-westerners exaggerating the negative pattern, but I think it remains if one controls for non-western status, but it hasn't been done.
Interesting study btw! If you take data from the Wittgenstein Database on education and demography, these are the figures for Denmark (adjusted for actual fertility): Total 1.73 children University educated 1.70 Upper secondary 1.74 Lower levels 1.76
That is however just the women's side. Male fertility usually is more eugenic than female fertilty (incels and stuff) so could be that Denmark is already in the green based on these figures and that assumption, even including immigrants
Denmark has super high rate of IVF usage at 8% of babies born (!), which is broadly eugenic, both because it improve offspring quality and because it raises fertility among older women who are smarter etc.
the effect of making school optional for teens: the less intelligent, less conscientious, less conformist would leave school and have babies, which would be dysgenic. This would be (even) worse than what we have now
You're forgetting about the dysgenic effects from immigration they push as the replacement for within group fertility. Foreign replacement is more dysgenic than internal dysgenic breeding pattern.
I would accept that deal! But would the Caplanites?
No, that stuff doesn't matter in Western countries. The idea comes from investment models in economics, old and disproven, but since it's based on econ theory, it lives on as a kind of zombie hypothesis.
He does mention it, around pages 182 and 254.
"A year of education (...) seems to prevent .10 births (...) Even worse, education (...) targets the educational elite (...) This is demographically perverse" -- Caplan
But didn't make a big deal out of it.
With a good excuse. "A book on education is not the place to judge whether human beings are more trouble than they're worth"
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