A couple dozen other experts and I weigh in on the question of whether Ukraine will have to make territorial concessions to Russia to end the war (I say yes, Crimea, but maybe not in Donbas):
Follow
Kimberly Marten
@KimberlyMarten
Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia University; international security specialist, Russia watcher
Kimberly Marten’s Tweets
Orban and Mearsheimer meet to discuss "the causes, background, and possible outcomes of the war in Ukraine" [no mention of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, because, well...]
1
1
Too good not to tweet: Mearsheimer on (1) his meeting with Orban and how he doesn't want to talk about it, even after Orban published a photo of them together; (2) why Putin doesn't lie, and (3) how no one knows if Russia interfered in US elections:
1
1
Cornell's Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy is searching for an associate or full professor of Technology and Public Policy. Full listing and application here: academicjobsonline.org/ajo/jobs/23587
2
13
56
Am I the only one who is having trouble getting Mastodon to load and update? It is soooo slow—just growing pains?
1
2
Russia’s war on Ukraine will have lasting impacts on its energy exports
In all of our #WEO22 scenarios, Russian fossil fuel exports never return to 2021 levels
And within 🔟 years, Russia’s share in the global oil & gas trade is set to fall by half → iea.li/3FOfjY6
GIF
2
12
8
I’ve been on Twitter since 2008. At the rate Musk is going, I’m not sure Twitter will be solvent for much longer. Regardless, you can find me @Prof_BearB@mastodon.social
2
5
6
I have no idea how this works but am joining the crowd: follow me at @KimberlyMarten@mastodon.sdf.org
4
Columbia seeks to hire an experienced practitioner-scholar as Professor of Professional Practice, in the areas of diplomacy, conflict resolution, international organizations, and/ or peacemaking and peace keeping. Listing here: apply.interfolio.com/115493
1
Thread: is this a new Russian propaganda tool? Running ultra-cheap bars in Europe where “locals” loudly discuss Ukrainian war night after night, using Russian talking points?
Quote Tweet
1/13 Here's a Russian propaganda story for @christogrozev un @bellingcat right out of the movies. We're in Venice, unintentionally eavesdropping on a conversation between 2 Russian guys (a bartender and his friend) and one of the regulars... So 
Show this thread
1
2
Pretty remarkable OSINT work here. If OSINT can identify these apparent drone launching sites/possible Iranian presence, so can UKR military.
Quote Tweet
A little Based on reports from partisans and WEBINT and other #OSINT, we have put together a list of locations where Iranians have reportedly been spotted recently. Most of these sightings take place in Crimea, although also Belarus seems to be a hotspot
Based on reports from partisans and WEBINT and other #OSINT, we have put together a list of locations where Iranians have reportedly been spotted recently. Most of these sightings take place in Crimea, although also Belarus seems to be a hotspotShow this thread
4
4
Terrific new piece on Putin's calculations in invading Ukraine, where things stand now, and what comes next, by my brilliant colleague Peter Clement:
1
1
So (2 of 2) what does that say about David Petraeus’s notion of Nato sinking the Black Sea Fleet in response?
2
Show this thread
Interesting point (1 of 2): if Russia used a nuke, it would have to assume that any counterstrike on Russian forces was also nuclear—so any response would risk nuclear escalation. twitter.com/Lemonpenguinad
This Tweet is unavailable.
2
1
2
Show this thread
(4, three wasn’t enough): This piece also assumes that high-level conversations are not already ongoing. Jake Sullivan has indicated he is talking to somebody in Russia.
2
Show this thread
(3) The use of a nuclear weapon would be unimaginably bad. What would be even worse is a world where dictatorial aggressors can use nuclear threats to force negotiations on more and more victims, with ever-escalating demands.
3
2
14
Show this thread
(2) But if Putin were to use nuclear weapons, he would make Russia an international pariah. He would doom his own economy and face grave political instability at home and maybe a coup.
2
1
5
Show this thread
(1 of 3) This piece implies that a credible threat of nuclear use by Russia should lead to negotiation, since use of a nuclear weapon is the worst thing we can imagine.
Quote Tweet
The Kremlin’s disproportionate and destructive response to the blowing up of the Kerch bridge connecting Russia and Crimea contains two significant lessons, writes Carnegie's @AlexGabuev
in this piece for @FT
ft.com/content/c77e57
2
1
5
Show this thread
Terrific new explainer and (predictor) on Nord Stream and the Europe-Russia natural gas relationship for
3
3
Extraordinarily deep, comprehensive, and Poli-Sci findings-rich thread on potential Putin use of nukes in Ukraine:
Quote Tweet
Could Russia use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine?
Yes. While the risk is still low, it's rising.
[THREAD]
Show this thread
9
24
Any appeaser calling for negotiations with Russia needs to explain how the result of these negotiations is going to be more credible than
1. The Russian-Ukrainian Border Treaty
2. The Budapest Memorandum
3. The NATO-Russia Founding Act
4. The Helsinki Final Act
5. The UN Charter
Quote Tweet
And here's Putin's signature (on the right) on the 2003 agreement between Russia and Ukraine demarcating the two countries' borders. The agreement is lodged with the UN.
98
2,454
6,551
Show this thread
Excellent point by : frontline too spread out for 1 small Russian nuke to make a military difference; only utility would be to use several or hit a population center
1
Exc thread discussing 1997 paper by Barry Posen on why aggression/seizure of territory by a nuclear-armed state using conventional weapons can’t be allowed to stand. Can’t live in “Conventional forces take; nuclear forces hold!” world. Asks: what if Saddam (wrt Kuwait)had nukes?
Quote Tweet
Putin announces the illegal annexation of more of Ukrainian territory today, and states: “"We will defend our lands with all the means at our disposal.” Presumably a reference to nuclear weapons. How should this affect thinking about the war? 1/10
1/10Show this thread
3
11
19
King's College London Russia Institute seeks 2-year lecturer starting Jan 2023; deadline to apply Oct. 12:
jobs.kcl.ac.uk/gb/en/job/0552
7
8
Reasoned discussion of possible nuclear strike scenarios by Russia and likely US/NATO responses.
1
2
7
1
2
3
U Mass Amherst seeks virtual scholar in residence: Ukrainian scholars in social/behavioural sciences:
Johns Hopkins SAIS seeks an Assist. or Early Assoc. Prof. of Strategic Studies (Tenure-Track). apply.interfolio.com/113373, and applications are due by October 25. They’re particularly interested in candidates with policy experience and/or policy interests.
1
Here is my written testimony: oversight.house.gov/sites/democrat
1
3
Show this thread
Today along with and NDU’s Joseph Siegle I was honored to testify about Russia’s Wagner Group before the House Oversight Comm. Nat’l Security Subcomm:
1
1
9
Show this thread
New job listing ! Hiring a tenure-track assistant professor in cybersecurity and national security policy. Full description and link to apply: apply.interfolio.com/113150
1
1
Full English translation of the video purporting to show Yevgeny Prigozhin recruiting Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine as part of Wagner private military company. Absolutely bonkers if it's really him.
43
471
804
Show this thread
Ex-convict and human turd-beetle Prigozhin, who sued in normal court (and lost) and in kangaroo Russian court (and won) over us reporting he runs and funds the Wagner PMC, here on video recruiting Russian convicts for his "own private PMC" Wagner.
2:19
1.1M views
547
4,172
12.1K
Show this thread
Great job for assistant professor in cybersecurity and nat'l security policy. Full description and application link here: apply.interfolio.com/113150
This map which is circulating in Ukrainian media reveals the blowback risk for Russia if it continues shelling the Zaporizhzhia reactor
12
60
150
Show this thread
I am a tenured Associate Prof in political science at a SLAC (Colby), and I have been part of several TT/VAP job searches. I chaired one. Here are some tips based on what I have seen over the years.
1/n
15
301
1,145
Show this thread
Rumor on Telegram channel that this may be associated with another Prigozhin propaganda movie. Shnurov already produced music for some of these films.
1
1
Show this thread
Targeting individual civilians is a war crime. Ukrainian grain tycoon and logistics expert Oleksiy Vadatursky and his wife were killed by a Russian airstrike yesterday in Mykolaiv. 7 of 8 missile strikes hit his home.
6
8