I'm happy to share my first academic article co-authoring with Prof. Tim Crawford on how states use arms control to divide alliances. We want to thank both the old and new teams, the reviewers, friends and colleagues that help us get here!
doi.org/10.1162/isec_a
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Khang Vu
@KhangXVu
Ph.D. candidate. I study East Asian security. Korea & Vietnam watcher. MA. Hanoi made. A proud fan. 武春康.
Khang Vu’s Tweets
Although ideology matters, it’s not enough to explain Vietnam’s foreign policy. Power politics matters too. It is thus wrong to argue Vietnam would not confront China due to a common ideology. Vietnam’s foreign policy is contingent, not predetermined.
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"China will hold a rare joint military exercise with its landlocked neighbour Laos this month." As I argued before, China's growing military influence in Laos will hurt Vietnam more than its aggression at sea. Vietnam must look west instead of east.
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From me: a US security commitment to Vietnam shouldn't include just Hanoi's maritime security. The US must commit to Hanoi's continental security also for Chinese coercion won't be limited to a single domain. The US has much to learn from USSR when it comes to defending Vietnam.
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What Hanoi needs from its relationship with Washington depends overwhelmingly on the state of China-Vietnam relations. buff.ly/3LzVM07
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As we commemorate the 48th anniversary of the end of Vietnam War this weekend, I share some thoughts on how the US and Vietnam can move their relationship forward. A US-Vietnam alliance isn't impossible, but there're challenges both sides need to overcome.
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I can never understand how some people can claim that Vietnam won't stand up to China because of a common ideology. 1979 proves that when necessary and as a very last resort, Vietnam would be willing to protect its national interests by all possible means against any threats.
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My interview with Radio France Internationale on the US-Vietnam-China triangle. China doesn't worry about Vietnam's arms modernization because Vietnam cannot arms race with China. Instead, China worries more about Vietnam improving relations with the US.
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I explained why Vietnam's growing number of partnerships don't increase its agency vis-à-vis China. CN has been the most important factor behind VN's multidirectional foreign policy because CN has the capability to constrain VN's options.
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From me. "The US simply sees that it needs Vietnam to counterbalance China in the South China Sea. But it’s best for Vietnam to stay on good terms with China. The Vietnamese government understands that there is no way that they can win a military fight."
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US Secretary of State Blinken broke ground on a $1.2B US embassy in Hanoi. The land lot will be leased for 99 years and the construction is expected to take six years.
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"The US condemned Vietnam's jailing of a prominent political activist and said ties could only reach their full potential if VN improved human rights record." The problem is VN holds the trump card in this relationship. US needs VN more than VN needs US.
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Time does fly. My sister and I planned to go to Copley on that day. Fortunately, we overslept and avoided the tragedy. The police caught one of the terrorists just 4 miles away from where we lived at the time. #BostonStrong
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ALERT: The starting line for the 2023 Boston Marathon is now in place for Marathon Monday!
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US Ambassador to Vietnam Marc Knapper hoped to welcome CPV Gen Sec Nguyen Phu Trong to the US at the earliest convenience and to upgrade US-Vietnam ties.
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While I’m optimistic about recent developments, Blinken’s visit to Vietnam is not a guarantee that both sides will upgrade bilateral ties. When Sec Def Austin and VP Harris visited in 2021, Vietnam rejected the upgrade. Process is not necessarily the same as progress.
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The US added "resilient" to its Vietnam policy. Instead of just supporting a "strong, prosperous, and independent Vietnam" in the past, it is now a "strong, prosperous, resilient, and independent Vietnam." Will we REALLY see an upgrade in ties then?
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"Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and President Joe Biden reiterated their invitation for high-level visits. The two leaders accepted the invitation from each other and assigned relevant agencies to arrange visits at an appropriate time."
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Biden having a phone call with the General Secretary, not the President, is a wise move. The first step to upgrading US-Vietnam ties is to respect the Communist Party's authority, and the Party wants successive US presidents to affirm that principle. There are no other options.
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"In recent weeks, Vietnam has told visitors that it's ready to upgrade ties with the US, but it wants to do this in tandem with a visit by its party leader." Conflicting signals from VN here. Last week Reuters ran a piece on VN's hesitance to upgrade ties.
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Vietnam faces a serious security challenge from China in the South China Sea. We look at how it is strengthening its ability to deter Chinese escalation, while diversifying its military procurement | Read our latest research paper: go.iiss.org/ArmingVietnam
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The North Korean state has shown a pattern of exploiting crises to tighten its control over the people. The COVID-19 pandemic and the opening of state-run food shops is the latest example. My latest .
Quoted in this piece by , "Vietnam reaps more benefits from a continuation of a friendly relationship with China than an upgrade in the relationship with the US, for it is China that ultimately determines the level of Vietnam’s security."
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"[Leadership turnover] raises doubts about prospect of Vietnam joining any coalition led by the US ... given Trong’s view that China’s support is essential to the success of CPV." I would caution against saying a politician is either pro-US or pro-China.
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From . "The fact that Vietnam’s leaders continually engage with their northern neighbor should not be taken as an indication they are leaning toward China at the expense of their relations with the United States and other Western countries."
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Just to clarify: I don't claim that the factions do not exist. I claim that we don't have the evidence to prove that they exist. Those are two different claims. Either the factions exist or they don't. We simply don't know in the absence of primary evidence.
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Are there “pro-China” or “pro-US” factions in Vietnamese politics? In this piece , I trace and explain the obsession with “factions” as an explanatory variable. Arguments mentioning “factions” without primary evidence are unfalsifiable.
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I am glad to contribute to the latest issue of the Asia Pacific Bulletin on the ups and downs of Vietnam-North Korea relations. Vietnam and North Korea will not become allies like in the good old days, but there is room for cooperation.
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“If they’re party stalwarts, they’re seen as close to Beijing. But if they’re officials who have spent most of their time in govt as bureaucrats, they’re regarded as friendly to Washington.” This take is wrong, but sadly, good take isn’t click worthy.
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Vietnam's UN abstention on Russian invasion is neither "right" nor "wrong," but rational. Vietnam's domestic political system values consistency in foreign policy and Hanoi only changes its stance when there is clear net benefit. My latest .
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Despite limited past operations in littoral waters, Vietnam’s strategic attention has been overwhelmingly directed at land-based threats, argues . buff.ly/3xIpFDD
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As a land power bordering a body of water, Vietnam has historically prioritized land threats. An in-depth study of its history suggests that whether Vietnam realizes it or not, it has always had a continental grand strategy. My latest
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