Kevin Simler

Here's the main thesis: Leaders everywhere — dictators, prime ministers, CEOs, HOA presidents — face the same incentives. To stay in power, they need to keep their key supporters happy. (Typically .) Otherwise the leader will be swapped out for someone more effective.

That's pretty much it. The trick is not to treat dictators as all-powerful or to assume benevolence on the part of democratic leaders. Everyone's part of a coalition and everyone acts in their self-interest.

The crucial variable is the SIZE of the ruling coalition, i.e., the # of key supporters needed for the leader to remain in power. When the coalition is small, you get dictatorships, poverty, and oppression. When the coalition is big, you get democracies, prosperity, and freedom.

From these simple premises, the book then sheds light on a wide variety of political phenomena: dynasties, coups, revolutions, purges, foreign aid, debt relief, taxes, elections, freedom, and of course war.

All in all, I highly recommended The Dictator's Handbook. It does what too many works of social science utterly fail to do, i.e., TAKE INCENTIVES SERIOUSLY. It also pairs nicely with The Elephant in the Brain (esp. the chapter on politics). Now some quotes and takeaways...

"The three most important characteristics of a coalition are: (1) Loyalty; (2) Loyalty; (3) Loyalty." — The Dictator's Handbook

"From the perspective of this book, so-called liberals and so-called conservatives appear simply to have carved out separate electoral niches that give them a good chance of winning office." — The Dictator's Handbook

"History is full of democratic Davids beating autocratic Goliaths." — The Dictator's Handbook