A surprisingly great read: "The Dictator's Handbook" by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. 282 pages, published in 2011.
Notes to follow 
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The crucial variable is the SIZE of the ruling coalition, i.e., the # of key supporters needed for the leader to remain in power. When the coalition is small, you get dictatorships, poverty, and oppression. When the coalition is big, you get democracies, prosperity, and freedom.
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.) Otherwise the leader will be swapped out for someone more effective.From these simple premises, the book then sheds light on a wide variety of political phenomena: dynasties, coups, revolutions, purges, foreign aid, debt relief, taxes, elections, freedom, and of course war.
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All in all, I highly recommended The Dictator's Handbook. It does what too many works of social science utterly fail to do, i.e., TAKE INCENTIVES SERIOUSLY. It also pairs nicely with The Elephant in the Brain
(esp. the chapter on politics).
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"The three most important characteristics of a coalition are: (1) Loyalty; (2) Loyalty; (3) Loyalty." — The Dictator's Handbook
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"From the perspective of this book, so-called liberals and so-called conservatives appear simply to have carved out separate electoral niches that give them a good chance of winning office." — The Dictator's Handbook
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"History is full of democratic Davids beating autocratic Goliaths." — The Dictator's Handbook
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"A man always has two reasons for doing anything: a good reason and the real reason." — J. P. Morgan
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Why democracies often prop up foreign dictatorships (in spite of their high-minded rhetoric and their love of freedom domestically):pic.twitter.com/53X3TX3ts3
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The book also has a VERY cynical take on foreign aid (esp. disaster relief) intended to help citizens of autocratic governments: (1) Autocrats take most of the $ for themselves; (2) Knowing aid $ will come creates a perverse incentive not to prevent disasters ahead of time.
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Savvy governments (e.g., the US State Department) understand that aid money mostly goes to the dictator and his coalition, which is why they use it for bribes (i.e., to extract policy concessions), all in the guise of "helping the poor."
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But finally (on an optimistic note), the book portrays democracies as relatively stable arrangements(!), stuck in a kind of virtuous cycle where both citizens AND leaders benefit from key political freedoms.
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Why key political freedoms (speech, press, assembly) are mostly stable in a democracy: 1. Politicians who provide freedoms make voters happy ⇒ re-elected. 2. Politicians need free speech to know what voters actually want. 3. Free people work harder and smarter ⇒ ↑ tax revenue.
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P.S.
@cgpgrey made a fantastic 18-minute video summary of The Dictator's Handbook: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs …. Also a bonus follow-up video on Death and Dynasties (5 min): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ig_qpNfXHIU … These videos are no substitute for the full book, but they're pretty damn good.Show this thread
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