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KevinSimler's profile
Kevin Simler
Kevin Simler
Kevin Simler
@KevinSimler

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Kevin Simler

@KevinSimler

Writer, software person, armchair anthropologist, dilettante. All genders, all political opinions welcome. Book: https://amzn.com/0190495995/ 

San Francisco, CA
meltingasphalt.com
Joined March 2011

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    1. Mat Balez‏ @matbalez 11 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KevinSimler

      excellent piece, but the "J'accuse" section is flawed—based on true/false we can take action to protect our children in future

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Kevin Simler‏ @KevinSimler 11 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @matbalez

      thanks Mat. I don't think my reasoning is flawed though, because no _individual_ can fix things (for their kids) on their own.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Mat Balez‏ @matbalez 11 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KevinSimler

      there is plenty individuals can do eg: (1) vote for pols that will enact legislation (2) behavior change (eg go vegetarian)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Kevin Simler‏ @KevinSimler 11 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @matbalez

      but the pragmatic EV on those actions is 0. (Actually negative when you account for the costs.)

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Kevin Simler‏ @KevinSimler 11 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KevinSimler @matbalez

      when you go vegan, you don't nudge the climate more than 0.0000001%. and meanwhile, you incur the costs of veganism.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Mat Balez‏ @matbalez 11 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KevinSimler

      problem of climate change (existential risk to humanity) is near infinite so that tiny percentage represents huge value

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Kevin Simler‏ @KevinSimler 11 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @matbalez

      oh, i disagree climate change is an existential risk. i guess that's where we differ. with your estimates, your logic makes sense

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Mat Balez‏ @matbalez 11 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KevinSimler

      ok. but separately why do you not count individual action as part of a collective action (e.g. voting) to be fair game?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Kevin Simler‏ @KevinSimler 11 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @matbalez

      because the individual action (w/in collective action problem) is by definition -EV, and i'm methodologically assuming selfishness

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Mat Balez‏ @matbalez 11 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KevinSimler

      you're saying that voting is, by definition, negative expected value? i don't follow.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Kevin Simler‏ @KevinSimler 11 Nov 2016
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @matbalez

      not quite. I'm saying a collective action problem requires -EV for individual actions, by defn. And voting can be modeled as CAP

      11:26 PM - 11 Nov 2016
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Kevin Simler‏ @KevinSimler 11 Nov 2016
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @KevinSimler @matbalez

          sorry if I'm misunderstanding you here. this may be too complex for tweet-sized exchanges

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Mat Balez‏ @matbalez 11 Nov 2016
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @KevinSimler

          you're also clearly much smarter about this than me, so i am likely in error

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Mat Balez‏ @matbalez 11 Nov 2016
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @KevinSimler

          there is of course a cost to voting but again i weigh the potential positive outcome as huge so infinitesimal influence matters

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Mat Balez‏ @matbalez 11 Nov 2016
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @matbalez @KevinSimler

          so same disagreement as before, i suppose :)

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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