No points for predicting that this time will end just like last time. The information value in a prediction is proportional to the surprise.
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Replying to @naval
@naval@ben_mathes Along the same lines, I like this quote: "Surprise is the measure of a poor hypothesis."http://lesswrong.com/lw/hs/think_like_reality/ …2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @KevinSimler
@naval@ben_mathes in other words, whenever we feel surprise, it's an opportunity for us to correct our (mistaken) beliefs1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
@naval @ben_mathes which is one of the reasons we like people who can consistently surprise us :)
2:03 PM - 29 Jul 2015
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