No points for predicting that this time will end just like last time. The information value in a prediction is proportional to the surprise.
-
@naval@ben_mathes Along the same lines, I like this quote: "Surprise is the measure of a poor hypothesis."http://lesswrong.com/lw/hs/think_like_reality/ …
@naval @ben_mathes in other words, whenever we feel surprise, it's an opportunity for us to correct our (mistaken) beliefs
-
-
@naval@ben_mathes which is one of the reasons we like people who can consistently surprise us :)Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.