No points for predicting that this time will end just like last time. The information value in a prediction is proportional to the surprise.
@naval @ben_mathes Along the same lines, I like this quote: "Surprise is the measure of a poor hypothesis."http://lesswrong.com/lw/hs/think_like_reality/ …
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@KevinSimler@ben_mathes Great read. "Quantum physics is not "weird". You are weird."Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@naval@ben_mathes in other words, whenever we feel surprise, it's an opportunity for us to correct our (mistaken) beliefs -
@naval@ben_mathes which is one of the reasons we like people who can consistently surprise us :)
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