Kevin Simler

Though it's not always practiced by people in conditions of danger or scarcity, I think some of the ethos of engineering and physical/mathematical sciences is Normal Pessimist. Intense conscientiousness. (There's also a Weird Optimist madcap creativity aspect to those fields.)

Weird Pessimism judges people for being disingenuous or unreflective. Normal Pessimism judges people for being incompetent.

Another way of looking at this: Weird Pessimism criticizes things. Normal Optimism tries to make itself impossible to criticize. Normal Pessimism has bigger problems to worry about than criticism. Weird Optimism is too engaged/happy to worry about being criticized.

Yet another way of looking at it: There are social gradients that push towards stupidity. Normal Optimism has a sense of those gradients, and enthusiastically goes with the flow. Weird Pessimism has a sense of those gradients and hates them (but is still kind of trapped in them.)

Normal Pessimism is locked out of those gradients by necessity; it “can’t afford to be stupid.” And Weird Optimism ignores or is unaware of those gradients.

My own cards on table: I was raised by Normal Pessimist parents (self-made immigrants) and respect Normal Pessimism but don’t always like it; I’m a Weird Optimist by nature, but I’ve flirted with Normal Optimism on and off; most of my friends are Weird Pessimists.

I think the best hope for the future is probably the Weird Pessimist/Weird Optimist/Normal Pessimist alliance.

Normal Optimism is Winnerism. Support whoever is winning, believe whatever gives you relative social power. Follow and amplify incentive gradients. Of course it’s healthy to want to win — and a fair critique of Weird Pessimists that they have an unhealthy resentment of success.