I also find it very compelling and am also a noob at geopolitics. But he seems to mostly ignore technological development, which I would think is another major determinant of the competitive national landscape of the coming decades.
I’ve listened to this podcast three times now, and Peter’s model has lodged itself pretty deep in my brain. It was extremely compelling and highly recommended. Problem: I’m a n00b at geopolitics and don’t trust my own judgment. So I’m v. eager to hear informed critiques.https://twitter.com/patrick_oshag/status/1102911751635517440 …
-
-
-
Yeah, no mention of drones or bioweapons or comma technology (internet etc.)... I wonder if it’s because he thinks they’re not major factors, or because he hasn’t really integrated them into his worldview.
- 1 more reply
New conversation -
-
-
I think the primary critique is a general rather than specific one, which is basically you can't forecast complex systems
-
yes very good to keep in mind :) but even his retrospective analysis (e.g. of Bretton Woods) is eye-opening to me. Was it really just the naked trade of US naval protection/economic support in exchange for alliance in Cold War? I’ve never heard such a succinct explanation.....
- 4 more replies
New conversation -
-
-
Geopolitics ironically further down the priority stack, at the moment. Here for the 'I'm a n00b at X, so I don't trust my own judgment' commentary. That's an incredible thing to say.
-
yeah geopolitics has always been a low priority for me as well... gotta play catch up here and I’m glad you appreciate the epistemic humility, I think it’s really important
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Lots of different critiques: (I was tempted to do a LMGTFY but resisted) https://www.reddit.com/comments/6qs7ko https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/11/zeihan-japan-and-china.html … Most of the critiques seem geared around his models leaving out very important data or making predictions that don't come true.
-
that second link was helpful, thanks
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Very interesting... But the analysis has a "20th century feel" to it. Controlling shipping routes and having a large navy seems a bit silly in an ever more digital economy. Also, no two countries that both have nuclear weapons can have war. So military power loses its teeth.
-
Agree on the "20th century feel." But I'm willing to believe the ability to move materials/people/weapons around are still at the core of the global system, even today. The digital economy rides on the back of the physical one.
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.