The founder of Big History, @davidgchristian, identifies 7 major transitions, each giving rise to new forms of complexity:
1. Birth of stars.
2. Birth of heavier elements.
3. Planets.
4. Life.
5. Humans.
6. Agriculture.
7. Industry.
But which of these is the MOST important?
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If this view of history has merit, it suggests that the next truly transformative step will involve a new modality for cumulative learning. Is this AI? Machine learning? The answer is "definitely maybe." But we're certainly not there yet.
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AI systems of today are like the brains of early animals. They're capable of some cool feats of learning, but there's nothing cumulative about them. They're built, they learn a few things, and then they dead-end. Where feedback loops exist, they all pass through human culture.
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The big thing to watch for, then, are AI systems capable of self-sustaining knowledge accumulation. An open-ended machine culture. It's a ways off — but it's coming, and it's very important.
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