27/. This modelling, by @neil_ferguson at Imperial College, was presented to SAGE on 25 February.
It was intended to show the Reasonable Worst Case & uses an ICU rate of 16% & is based on flu & data from China & Japan.
Despite this warning, the message was “business as usual.”pic.twitter.com/DxLXjMkVg5
-
Deze collectie tonen
-
28/. When SAGE saw these terrifying predictions, they decided to ignore them. Was it that they didn’t believe or trust the modelling or was it a desire to push
#HerdImmunity? Either way, they decided to wait until “real” data emerged from Italy & Spain to assess how bad it was.pic.twitter.com/SJlW38sSqH
3 antwoorden 54 retweets 93 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen -
29/. But the worst case scenario presented to SAGE on 25/2, turned out to be MORE optimistic than the reality. Data from Italy & emerging UK cases showed the ICU rate was actually DOUBLE what they had estimated. Here Prof Ferguson explains on 25 March.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRfU_M7FN1s …pic.twitter.com/jvBfUfSw6D1 antwoord 32 retweets 78 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen -
30/. Because
#COVID, has a long incubation period, high rate of transmission & is invisible, by the time data is gathered from hospitals locally, it is too late. The lack of community testing capacity & large numbers of infections arriving unchecked at airports, spelt disaster.pic.twitter.com/03u0PiFxF12 antwoorden 36 retweets 88 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen -
Stefan Simanowitz heeft geretweet Stefan Simanowitz
31/. When, on 16 March,
@neil_ferguson published his now infamous report showing that NHS capacity would be overwhelmed, the govt moved to shift tactics...slowly. "The science has changed” they announced. But lockdown would not happen until a week later.https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1239645972831051789 …Stefan Simanowitz heeft toegevoegd,
Stefan SimanowitzGeverifieerd account @StefSimanowitzAls antwoord op @StefSimanowitz @peterjukes en 32 anderen26/. Has the govt quietly shifted their strategy away from#herdimmunity?@whippletom (@thetimes) writes: “The team whose modelling estimates advised Cobra...modelled controlled spread & realised 250,000 would die. Now advise stronger intervention to suppress.”#coronavirusuk pic.twitter.com/hmPmdA0skI1 antwoord 28 retweets 70 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen -
32/. By blaming it on the science, ministers & the PM were ignoring the fact that - although
@neil_ferguson underestimated the ICU rate by 50% - he had nevertheless made clear on 25 Feb, that if#COVID19 was allowed to “move through the population”, the NHS would be overwhelmed.pic.twitter.com/3OI4oGzBU9
2 antwoorden 55 retweets 107 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen -
33/. The new suppression strategy was rolled out & the govt said everything was going to be "ramped-up". The old strategy - doing nothing apart from encouraging people to wash their hands - could result in up to 500,000 deaths said the govt. But they'd known this for some time.pic.twitter.com/LyuogaKoe2
1 antwoord 45 retweets 84 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen -
34/. At the SAGE meeting on 27 February, the Reasonable Worst Case for deaths was estimated at 1% of the potentially infected 80% of the population (around 500,000). The minutes show that this figure was welcomed(!), since the earlier estimate was 2-3%. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888778/S0379_Eleventh_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf …pic.twitter.com/uq1aypMg5D
3 antwoorden 40 retweets 80 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen -
35/ This Reasonable Worst Case would have been known to Cummings when he attended his first SAGE meeting on 5/3. He would've also known that on 21/2 NERVTAG had estimated death toll of up to 1.3 million Which is why some of the decisions in this meeting are almost inexplicable.pic.twitter.com/Pm5zwl4xsM
15 antwoorden 198 retweets 284 vind-ik-leuksDeze collectie tonen -
Als antwoord op @StefSimanowitz @KevinPascoe en
But...surely you can’t argue with decisions from Brains?pic.twitter.com/S8iGuTddVF
2 antwoorden 2 retweets 2 vind-ik-leuks
Be fair - the wooden Thunderbird puppet Brains had much more compassion and humanity than Cummings has 
Het laden lijkt wat langer te duren.
Twitter is mogelijk overbelast of ondervindt een tijdelijke onderbreking. Probeer het opnieuw of bekijk de Twitter-status voor meer informatie.