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More than that, pandemics have some risk of being really bad. Much worse than the annual flu. As bad as the 1918 flu that killed 50 million - or conceivably worse, b/c we don't have a principled reason to think that's as bad as it can get either.
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
Agree with this
@mattyglesias piece: In some ways Don't Look Up works better as an allegory about other wildly overlooked but potentially existential threats (asteroid strikes, supervolcanoes, the next pandemic…) than as an allegory about climate change: https://www.slowboring.com/p/dont-look-up pic.twitter.com/MEi2VCU74Y
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
Don’t look up is a satirical film in which a comet likely to strike the earth poses an existential threat to humanity — the authors say it’s an allegory about climate change but what if we read it as about comet strikes?https://www.slowboring.com/p/dont-look-up
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
A small group of elite decision-makers really could greatly improve our comet-defense policies if they bothered to care!
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
I saw the phrase "a constant impulse to overleap the process of becoming genuinely sure of something to get to the part where you're smug about it" somewhere and can't stop thinking about it.
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
'I really do feel like the story of antigen tests is just the story of how America deals with public health; inefficiently, paternalistically, and without any collective unity. The rapid test is just a microcosm of all that is flawed'
@michaelmina_labhttps://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/12/22/nation/man-behind-rapid-test-crusade/ …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Kelsey Piper Retweeted
How well calibrated were global catastrophic risk experts on the size of future natural pandemics? From Bostrom and
@anderssandberg informal 2008 survey, the experts estimated a mean probability of 60% that a natural pandemic would kill 1m people before 2100.pic.twitter.com/jZjBe7rdmS
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
This recent
@statnews piece strikes me as bullshit at best. “If we were redefine gain-of-function research to include most of microbiology, banning it would be bad for science. So let’s not enact the much narrower ban that is actually being proposed.”https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/23/gain-of-function-research-advances-knowledge-and-saves-lives/ …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Do they spend more on research? Structure research teams differently? Approve projects/scan projects for promisingness differently? Hire differently? This seems important to figure out!!
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Is Pfizer systematically different from the other big pharma research companies in a way that explains why they invented both one of the best vaccines and the best treatment, or do people think it's probably coincidence?
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
All the local pharmacies are sold out of rapid tests, so my neighbors have taken to posting on the local listserv asking if anyone will sell them one. Email after email panicking about exposures and their families. This is such a tremendous government failure.
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There's a remarkable seriousness and moral clarity to Scott's latest post, making the case for doctors to prescribe off-label for Covid patients this winter.
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"That’s partly on the FDA for making poor decisions such that optimal treatment required virtue on the part of individual doctors. But mostly it’s on me, for not having it.":https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-fda-has-punted-decisions-about …
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
The institutional failures at the FDA documented here are just staggeringhttps://www.propublica.org/article/this-scientist-created-a-rapid-test-just-weeks-into-the-pandemic-heres-why-you-still-cant-get-it …
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
With cases spiking, oral antivirals unaccessible, and limited access to monoclonal antibodies which work for Omicron -- fluvoxamine looks like reasonable choice to prevent hospitalization Preprinted to make it available immediately for considerationhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.17.21268008v1 …
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I almost struggle to name an amount of money I *wouldn't* be willing to spend to produce enough Paxlovid for the whole world. Spending $100billion on this would be a bargain. (Are we doing that? No.)https://twitter.com/glassmanamanda/status/1473377999563239429 …
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
Let's take a look in the mirror: if Collins had come to us and said "Tell me what you know," what could we actually have said, with a solid scientific basis? Honest question. I'm curious if anyone can point to consensus conclusions that translate into actionable policy advice.
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
Please don't let the dipshit ideologues who have been promoting early treatments that likely don't work (HCQ, ivermectin) get in the way of keeping an open mind for the ones that could (Fluvoxamine). And if you do, you're also a dipshit. Different drug. Different data.
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
Great piece on the new
@arcinstitute and the importance of experimenting with scientific funding models by@KelseyTuoc.https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2021/12/18/22838746/biomedicine-science-grants-arc-institute …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Kelsey Piper Retweeted
Technological change is so fast that within a few years the government will have ability to distribute home testing equipment that currently exists
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Kelsey Piper Retweeted
Glad to see the NIH finally updated their fluvoxamine guidance: https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/therapies/immunomodulators/fluvoxamine/ … Risk/benefit call here doesn't seem like it's obviously correct but credit where credit's due: having an actual take on the recent evidence is an improvement.
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