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They've given themselves a generous 2.6 fold range (95k to 243k) for their projection interval. My "guess" 200k to 400k with 240k the best estimate. This is based on 2000 deaths per day continuing for 80 days. Above 243k and below 400k IHME are wrong & my dumb guess is right.
.@IHME_UW launched a major update to #COVID19 estimation framework (a multi-stage hybrid model) last week that adds a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered component allowing for estimated changes in disease transmission. More details: http://healthdata.org/covid/updates https://twitter.com/IHME_UW/status/1259558831178289152 …
Based on our updated model and latest available data, a projected 134,475 cumulative #COVID19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August.
http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
http://healthdata.org/covid/updates pic.twitter.com/qCRTCfVqUc
http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
http://healthdata.org/covid/updates pic.twitter.com/qCRTCfVqUc-
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