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You show disease A and bug B, and then hypothesize that B > A, but only when C (climate) is a factor. Problem is that there's no plausible mechanism for how B|C > A, and no experimental link either. So while it's an interesting hypothesis, this is not a proof.
As alternative hypotheses it could simply be that B is always present, or A > systemic B whether C is present or not. Have you tried metagenomic sequencing to look for other putative pathogens? (NGS was mentioned, but no data presented that I could find).
Unfortunately there are regulatory issues with exporting DNA from Kazakhstan, RIBSP in KZ has done basic sequencing (paper in review). Pasteurella does seem widely present species-wide (in healthy adults & calves), from our surveys to date.
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